JERUSALEM, July 9: Despite vowing to ignore a world court ruling Friday that its West Bank barrier is illegal, Israel is likely to come under major pressure from Washington to at least modify its route, analysts said.
The non-binding verdict by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague was cheered to the rafters by the Palestinian leadership as an unprecedented slap in the face for the Israeli government.
The Palestinians are aware that there is little prospect of a complete halt to construction, which is slated for completion by the end of next year, but the verdict will act as powerful ammunition when they take their battle against the barrier to the United Nations.
The ICJ, the highest UN legal body, said in its ruling that the UN General Assembly and Security Council "should consider what further action is required to bring to an end the illegal situation resulting from the construction of the wall."
The United States reacted to Friday's verdict by reiterating that it believed it was "inappropriate" for the world court to issue a ruling. "We do not believe that that's the appropriate forum to resolve what is a political issue," White House spokesman Scott McClellan told reporters.
The United States is almost certain to use its veto power to block any Security Council resolution against the barrier if push comes to shove.But according to Israeli political analyst Menachem Klein, there is likely to be a heavy bout of arm twisting behind closed doors.
"The United States needs Europe's support there (at the Security Council) because of the situation in Iraq and therefore it's going to be very difficult for them to completely disregard" the verdict, Klein told AFP.
"There will be pressure - behind closed doors." As a result, Klein predicted that Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's government may have to back track on plans to route the barrier around some of the largest West Bank settlements that have proved particularly controversial.
For example, he said, the government may have to shelve ambitions to route the barrier around Ariel, a settlement that is home to some 17,000 Jews and lies 20 kilometres on the West Bank side of the so-called Green Line, the internationally-recognised border.
Negotiations minister Saeb Erakat confirmed that the Palestinian Authority was looking to take the issue to the UN Security Council in the light of the ruling. Palestinian analyst Hani al-Masri said the US stance was crucial, also predicting that Washington would not be keen to be seen as letting Israel do as it pleases.
"This will enable them (the Palestinian government) to increase the struggle against the wall knowing they have more support than ever from the international community," Masri said.
"I think that the US is in a very difficult situation... I think they will use the veto again but it will only make them seem as if they are against international law," after events in Iraq, he added.
Changes to the 700-kilometre route are already in the offing after the Israeli supreme court last month said that its current path violated the rights of some 35,000 Palestinians living north of Jerusalem. -AFP