The Wheat Commissioner has stated that the rains would help in achieving the official production target of 20.2 million tons of wheat this year. Province-wise target is set at 16 million tons; 2.5 million tons; one million tons; 0.6 million tons; and 0.1 million tons for Punjab, Sindh, the NWFP, Balochistan and Azad Jammu and Kashmir, respectively.
Other positive factors are increase in wheat support price from Rs350 to Rs400, and an expansion in area from 19.5 million acres to 20 million. Fixing production targets before sowing of the crop and then revising the same is Minfal's routine exercise. Targets often misfire.
For example, in 1998-99 the official target of 20 million tons wheat could not be achieved. The actual production turned out to be 17.8 million tons. Then in 1999-00, the target of 19.3 million tons was exceeded by a crop of 20.1 million tons - so far the highest production ever achieved.
Wheat target of 20 million tons in 2000-01 was revised down to 18.5 million tons with actual output staying at 19 million tons. Again in 2001-02 it was fixed at 20 million tons with actual achievement remaining at 18.2 million tons. Next two years experienced the same situation thus forcing the country to import the commodity throughout.
The system of crop estimation is not reliable. The provincial crop reporting services send estimates to the Federal Bureau of Statistics who after finalization releases the data for public consumption.
Among other reasons, too much interference by politicians and the bureaucracy makes data unreliable. The outdated system of crop reporting needs to be made modern by introducing satellite imagery.
Final estimates are based on revenue calculations which are misleading as junior staff after taking gratifications from cultivators show less area under cultivation and imaginary production figures. These incorrect declarations deprive the national exchequer of land revenue.
Consequently, planning an agricultural policy and fixing targets based on such data often prove disastrous. Policy makers ought to develop a foolproof system for data collection to formulate a policy.
Coming back to the Commissioner's assertions that enough rains, hike in support price, fertilizer availability, weedicides, better certified seed supply and an increase of Rs85 billion credit to farm sector are likely to boost wheat production by 0.8 million tons.
However, rains may not play the predicted role in irrigated areas occupying 88 per cent of the area under wheat crop because water supply was 46 per cent less resulting in delayed first irrigation which affects the yield.
The claim that 60-70 per cent of wheat was sown on time again is questionable. In Sindh and Southern Punjab, the crop sown on sugarcane areas was late because of the delay in crushing season.
Similarly, about 70 per cent of wheat sown in rice-wheat and cotton-wheat belts in Punjab yielding about 74 per cent of production, was also delayed. The delay of one day after the third week of November in Punjab reduces the yield by 35kg per hectare.
Deficiency of urea prompted its import by 1.7 million tons. Small farmers holding 63 per cent of farmland could not apply the recommended dose either due to the unavailability or high DAP and potash costs.
It is also stated that the quality seeds supply also increased to 175,000 tons from 140,000 tons. However, its use was deficient in Sindh on account of the ban on inter-provincial wheat movement by Punjab.
The situation further aggravated as small farmers and tenants remained deprived of the credit most of which went to the politically influential feudal lords. In regards to the claim of a positive impact of support price, it may be mentioned that last year too, the same was increased from Rs300 to Rs350 per 40kg.
Private sector paid Rs370 per 40kg in early harvest and later on Rs420-425 in Punjab, Rs450 in the NWFP, Rs480 in Karachi and Rs500 in Balochistan which were higher than what the government has announced for this year.
Private sector hoards the commodity for smuggling and releases it later on for earning more profit. As a result Passco and the Food Department could reserve only 3.5 million tons against the targeted six million tons.
Thus, the government was forced to import 1.5 million tons of wheat in 2003-04. Under this background it is improbable that the increased support price may bring desirable results.
According to the government estimates, as of December 26, wheat stock in Punjab was 1.4 million tons; in Sindh 3,04,941 tons; in the NWFP 1,18,708 tons; and in Balochistan 1.21,522 tons which were sufficient. Then why the government has decided to import six million tons of the commodity.
It should have waited till the harvest of present crop with a proclaimed target of 20.2 million tons. The period from February till wheat harvest is crucial because of the shortage of wheat and flour, and therefore this appears to be the chief reason to provide relief to common man.
Similarly the government last year decided to import 5,00,000 tons of wheat but due to the failure in achieving the target it raised the import to 1.5 million tons. Perhaps, this year too, it may be forced to increase the import.
It's a tragedy that though wheat is major food grain crop and despite fixing the production targets, the country had to import wheat for 48 years out of its 57 years. One of the basic reasons is the smuggling of wheat and flour across our western borders by the politically influential people.
They earn in billions by creating artificial shortage, and earn equal commission on its import. This is not the practice in wheat only, but also in other farm products.
On one hand the government is taking action against terrorists in tribal areas but has not taken any action against the agricultural terrorists who are looting and overburdening the national exchequer by forcing the government to import wheat and other agricultural commodities.