KARACHI, Nov 12: Without challenging the wisdom of the Supreme Court's verdict pronouncing a ban on serving meals in wedding receptions, people associated with poultry , meat and rice businesses are forecasting a decline in overall sales in their sectors by 25-50 per cent.
Many of them think that the ban on serving meals will not make a big impact due to ineffective implementation but they think the decision is likely to give a real jerk to their business in case it is implemented with full force.
Office-bearers of Meat Merchants Welfare Association (MMWA) are divided as some say that the decision will hardly cause a stir in the meat business, while some anticipate drastic cut in sales.
For instance, MMWA Senior Vice President Haji Sirajuddin Qureishi hails the Supreme Court decision that truly goes in favour of lower income groups who could ill afford expenditure on feasts.
"It is a good step but much depends on the police action which can make the ban fully effective," he said. However, portraying other side of the picture, he forecast a 50 per cent drop in sales of mutton and 25 per cent in beef out of total consumption particularly in meat selling days.
He said around 7,000-8,000 goat and 3,500-4,000 viel (bachia) and cows were being slaughtered daily in the city. "The slaughtering of goat and big animals will fall to 5,000 and 2,500-3,000 respectively as compared to daily slaughtering when the wedding season kicks off after Ramazan," he added.
It is estimated that one maund (40 kg) of rice, usually for biryani, requires at least 1.5 maund of mutton or beef, which means that mutton costs Rs13,200 at a price of Rs220 per kg, he said.
In response to a query that sales would not decline totally as some portion of the meat and mutton would definitely be consumed despite ban on serving meals, he said selling large quantities with freedom was a different game.
However, he ruled out any price cut in meat and beef when demand of these items would fall in the marriage season, saying big traders of livestock would bring live animals in the city as per their consumption.
Mr Siraj said that the decision of ban on serving meals would hardly cover all sections of our society. People living in big bungalows would continue to arrange lavish and sumptuous dinners for over 500 persons in their houses, while people living in small houses would continue to remain on high alert of becoming victim of police excesses.
Another senior official of MMWA also thinks that the ban on meals would definitely affect their sales but he did not give any specific percentage. However, MMWA General Secretary Iqbal Qureishi offers a different view, saying that the ban would hardly make any difference on the sales.
Welcoming the decision aimed at giving relief to lower income group people, he said that only few meat merchants enjoy the booming sales of meat and mutton. The recent decision would hurt those merchants who specifically deal in selling huge quantities for marriage and valima parties and not the entire Qureishi community as a whole.
Karachi Wholesale Poultry Association (KWPA) General Secretary Kamal Akhtar Siddiqui paints a 25 per cent decline in poultry live bird sales when demand of white bird would shrink after Eid in case the ban on serving meals is duly implemented.
"Sales are expected to cover up by 15 per cent out of total fall of 25 per cent drop in sales in case people serve chicken dishes at their houses," he added.
He did not agree that people as well as caterers have started cancelling orders for chicken which had been booked prior to Supreme Court's verdict.
Former chairman Rice Exporters Association of Pakistan (REAP), Abdul Rahim Janoo said that over 500,000 tons of basmati rice were consumed per year in serving various rice dishes in wedding and valima receptions and he guessed that this quantity would come to 200,000 tons after the Supreme Court decision.
He said the total domestic rice consumption stood at 2.3 million tons per year. "The decision will not make any negative or positive impact on the export of rice. Out of 4.6 million tons production in 2003-2004, Pakistan fetched $555 million by exporting 1.9 million tons," he added. In 2004-05, exporters forecast production of 4.8 million tons, aiming to earn $600 million by exporting 2.1 million tons.