SINGAPORE: After years of accusing the United States of meddling on Taiwan, China has shown signs it thinks it has found a way to use US influence to rein in the island's independence ambitions. All sides may be miscalculating.

The stakes are high, with Taiwan gearing up for a March 20 presidential election and a referendum on China's military build-up against the island. Beijing regards Taiwan as a renegade province and sees the referendum as a further step towards independence.

Taiwan leader Chen Shui-bian could jeopardise his alliance with the United States, the United States risks a misstep that could alienate an increasingly friendly Beijing and China is gambling US anger with Chen will outweigh any domestic lobby to back the island it has protected for more than five decades.

"China so far has been putting pressure on Taiwan indirectly through the United States," said Su Chi, former chairman of Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council and now a professor at Tamkang University outside Taipei.

"It is disturbing that they are exerting more pressure," he said. The latest Chinese official to visit Washington was Chen Yunlin, head of the Taiwan Affairs Office under the State Council, or cabinet, who met US State Department officials this week.

Chinese officials have portrayed the trip as part of the normal diplomatic flurry and an opportunity for an exchange of views. "I don't think it's an issue of pressure," said Xu Shiquan, vice chairman of the Society of Taiwan Studies in Beijing. "We are just explaining to the US our concerns and our position. We don't apply pressure to the United States."

THE THREE Cs: However, the leading China scholar on Taiwan recognized the significance of recent developments, such as a December statement by President George W. Bush during a visit by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao that was seen as a warning to Taiwan and to Chen Shui-bian not to provoke China with the referendum.

"To use the words of the Americans, we are trying to establish a sort of three Cs relationship: candid, constructive and cooperative," Xu said. "For this we need frequent exchanges of opinion and especially on Taiwan, which is a core and sensitive issue."

No doubt exists that the United States, Taiwan's closest ally and main arms supplier, can bring influence to bear on the island it has protected since it split from mainland China when the communists swept to power in 1949.

One question is whether China is overestimating just how much pressure the Bush administration may be willing to apply to a democratically elected government that has many friends in the US Congress.

"There has been a coincidence of views between the US and China on this (referendum) being destabilising," said Jane Skanderup of the Pacific Forum CSIS think-tank in Hawaii. But she cited a reluctance by Bush to be seen as too close to China on the issue. "With the visit this week I worry that if China keeps hoping or expecting the US to do its bidding, then the best thing would be for the Bush team to tell China what it tells Taiwan," said Skanderup. "'You guys have got to talk to each other; don't come complaining to us'."

Using the United States to restrain Chen is preferable to Beijing than the tactics it used before presidential elections in Taiwan in 1995. Then China test-fired missiles into the Taiwan Straits and the undaunted Taiwan electorate swept the incumbent pro-independence president back into office.

OVERPLAYING A HAND: The United States acts as if it is confident conflict will not break out between the Chinese rivals, but it cannot afford to forget that Beijing insists it will use force to recover the island if necessary and is ready to pay any price to prevent Taiwan becoming independent.

But it would prefer to avoid the overt show of strength that Taiwan's Chen believes would boost his chances in what is set to be a close election race, analysts say.

Taiwan voters appear unimpressed by Chen's tactics. "Chen was trying to poke Beijing's eye and didn't realise he would provoke the US," said Skanderup. "The debate in Taiwan was very heated - and still is - about Chen risking the key security relationship that Taiwan has."

Worries about security could outweigh any desire for independence among Taiwan voters. "The Chinese military build-up is disturbing, and the capability of Taiwan to defend itself is deteriorating - that's for sure," said Su of Tamkang University.

"Taiwan has to rely more on the US than before and this is why maybe people in Taiwan oppose the referendum for unnecessarily provoking the PRC while we are getting weaker militarily," he said, referring to China by its official name, the People's Republic of China.

China has about 500 missiles pointed towards Taiwan and says it is ready to use them, undeterred by US commitments to stand by the island in case of attack. "At this juncture, only the US is the superpower that has the wherewithal to manage the situation," said Su. -Reuters