The current outbreak of avian influenza - popularly known as bird flu - in a number of Asian countries is looming as a major international health crisis. It has potentially catastrophic human and economic consequences.

While the full story is yet to be established, it is already clear that economic backwardness, government cover-ups and an inadequate system of international monitoring and response have all played a part in enabling the emergence and spread of the disease.

The World Health Organization (WHO) was first notified of the disease by Vietnam in January. WHO reported that, as of January 27, the country had eight confirmed cases of infected people, nine "possible" cases and another 36 cases under investigation. The death toll was six but the figure has now climbed to 10. The epidemic has spread to 28 of Vietnam's 64 provinces and, according to government figures, an estimated 740,000 birds have died and almost three million have been slaughtered.

Outbreaks of the disease in bird populations have now been confirmed in Vietnam, Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea, Japan, Cambodia, Laos, Indonesia, Pakistan and China. One of the most serious situations is in Thailand where the government initially denied that the disease was present.

Five people have now died in Thailand bringing the overall regional toll to 16-most of them children. Thai officials have now confirmed that bird flu has spread to at least 25 out of the country's 76 provinces and more than 10 million birds have been culled.

The disease has had an immediate impact on exports from the affected countries. Thailand, which is Asia's largest exporter of poultry, has been hit with import bans by Japan, the European Union and other countries. Thai exports, half of which went to Japan, were valued last year at $1.25 billion. As well as large agri-businesses such as the Charoen Pokphand Group in Thailand, many small farmers throughout the region have been hard hit by the outbreak.

The farmers not only suffer economic hardship due to the loss of their stock but they and their families are most at risk of contracting the disease. Typically they live close to their poultry stocks, use primitive farming methods and have poor access to veterinary services. Among the first to die were a mother and her young daughter in the northern Ha Nam province in Vietnam.

While the human and economic losses are already substantial, health authorities are worried that a modified strain of the virus could emerge that is transmissible from human to human. At present, the human victims are all believed to have contracted the disease through direct contact with the faeces or other excretions of infected birds.

But the longer the outbreak continues and the greater the number of human victims, the higher the chances of a modified strain that can be directly transmitted to other humans. Such an occurrence could trigger a global pandemic, which could result in millions of deaths.

The same strain of the virus, known as H5N1, emerged for the first time in a human population in Hong Kong in 1997. Its lethal character was demonstrated by the high death rate-of the 18 confirmed cases, six people died.

The current outbreak, however, is not confined to a relatively small area. It has spread to several countries and to many areas where transport, communication and veterinary and other services are very limited. As a result, the danger of a modified virus emerging has multiplied significantly. -Courtesy: World Socialist Website.