Index may prove steeper this year

Published January 19, 2004

Previous records were battered and some new ones established on the Karachi Stock Exchange during the last week. Investors were not inclined, even to take a technical breather in an overbought market.

Although, the correction was overdue but no one could possibly predict when the current buying euphoria will end. Most of the basic fundamentals were bullish and that was perhaps why none was inclined to miss the bandwagon.

The KSE 100-share index battered it's previous 'all-time' peak level of 4,604 points at 4,684.12, and appeared poised to establish new records this year on the strength of positive fundamentals, both on corporate and political fronts.

The market, however, failed to chase the rise in index. It did rise by Rs30 billion around Rs1,003 billion. In contrast, it hit an all-time peak level of Rs1,019 billion last September, after the index touched a high mark of 4,604 points. It was still about Rs16 billion below the target, although the index did batter its previous level with a comfortable margin of 80 points.

The increase over the week in index was of 114 points or four per cent indicating that it was poised to establish new records during the current year on the strength of strong local and foreign buying.

Lacklustre performance of the massively-capitalized shares, notably the PSO, the Hub-Power and the PTCL, which together hold a weightage of about 50 per cent, was said to be the chief factor behind this steep gap.

Peace moves with India, relative calm on the political front, and a surge in the economy were some factors to have restored investor-confidence in the share market.

Added to these were high corporate earnings and enhanced divided - well above the rates of any other saving scheme or bank deposit. This perhaps did not allow the investors to opt out from the market, most analysts believed.

Indications were that the index would maintain its upward thrust followed by steady inflow of new year buying and portfolio investment by both, the leading brokerage houses and the financial institutions.

Notable feature of the week was the trading in the shares of Pakistan Capital Market Fund, which commenced on the forward counter at its face value of Rs10 and finished at Rs12.25 after hitting the week's peak level of Rs15.50 on a massive volume of 67 million shares, equalising previous record set by the OGDC.

It will open for public subscription on January 22, for three days. Other four new flotations, the Southern Networks, the Macpac Films, the Universal Board Industries and the Sui Southern Gas were also in line. The dates for Initial Public Offers (IPO) will be announced during the next couple of sessions.

The pace with which new issues were being floated indicates that the new year could be best after many lean years and reflects investors' confidence in the economy and corporate earnings. And added to it was the big sell-off plan of state- owned units.

"A massive public response to some of the recently floated issues reflects that it was time to break the lull on corporate front", said a leading sponsor. Trading, therefore, resumed on a high note as investors continued to build long positions on selected counters, aided partly by the friendly statements made by Indian Prime Minister after his Islamabad visit, and partly on the hopes of a durable peace between the two neighbours.

The rising peace prospects with India was also well-reflected in the performance of the KSE 100-share index, which breached through the barrier of 4,600 point for the second time to hit and sustain it.

The previous all-time official peak level at 4,604 points was achieved in mid-September last year, but during the same session it had briefly touched the all-time high mark of 4,644 points.

All eyes were now focused on the next month's Indo-Pak meeting to hold composite talks on the issues hindering peace between the two countries. Although, the final outcome of talks may not be immediately known but investors were expected to find some cue of the decisions to base on their future buying strategy.

On the local front, economy was well on the road to recovery, exports rising according to interim figures, and high corporate earnings for the first half of the current year.

"I don't expect immediate slowdown in the market's current run-up, as all the fundamentals point to a bull future outlook", predicted a leading stock analyst.

Some others said the setting of newly foreign funds were expected to resume their market operations during the next couple of weeks and their presence could attract a lot of sympathetic buying from the locals.

About half a dozen new IPOs were scheduled for the current month after the official approval, and analysts think it was a positive development and augured good health for stocks.

Meanwhile, management of the newly floated issue, the OGDC has announced that it had delivered share certificates to bankers, and applicants can collect the same from there.

Plus signs dominated the list under the lead of Wyeth Pakistan, which rose by Rs50 followed by the IGI Insurance, the Treet Corporation, the Nestle MilkPak, Javed Omer, the Rafhan Maize, the Shell Pakistan, the Pakistan Services, the HinoPak Motors, the Arif Habib Securities, the Packages and many others.

Losers were led by the Parke-Davis, followed by the PICIC, the Thal Jute, the Al-Ghazi Tractors, the Indus Motors, the Pak- Suzuki Motors, the Clariant Pakistan and the Atlas Honda, the Javed Omer, the Lakson Tobacco, and some others.

FORWARD COUNTER: The Sui Northern Gas came in for strong support and rose by Rs5 to close at Rs49.60 followed by the Engro Chemical which also posted a sharp gain on the expectations of higher final dividend, plus the bonus share. It was last quoted around Rs102.65.

Although, the OGDC remained a market leader in terms of volume but fell from the previous high level by 90 paisas on late selling to close at Rs52.60. The PTCL, the Hub-Power and some others, including the Nishat Mills, were traded high.