Alarm bells had rung about wheat output last year but they were not on time and rather weak as well. Dawn was possibly the only newspaper that reported a scuttled produce and predicted that the country would be resorting to import of wheat to meet domestic consumption needs.

Official managers of the country's agriculture denied the reports and painted the picture of all is well but subsequent developments have negated their position and Pakistan is now back on the import map, whatever the reasons officially attributed to the fall from exporting country status to becoming an importer of wheat.

Many factors were responsible for that negative transformation. Most importantly, the farming community was finding it difficult to balance income with input expenses; its labour, at least at the small farmer's level, is never given any weight. He had become disillusioned by the support price that had remained unchanged for three years and market forces had relentlessly fleeced him.

In addition, inefficient and corruption ridden procurement system that made special arrangements for influential feudals and accommodated serving or retired officials turned agriculturists because of their links in the administration and their resourcefulness for effectively pulling strings undermined the farmer's interests.

The government's confidence in the last year's crop was based in higher acreage under wheat. That helped to a certain extent but depending on this arrangement is self-defeating in the long run. Actually, we have covered a lot of distance between self- sufficiency and the long run and one can regretfully forecast that little mileage is to be obtained from extending the area of cultivation even in the short run.

The only reliable basis for increasing the yield is producing more from less land but that possibility is not being methodically explored, although, the latest technology emphasizes conservation of all resources. It makes the farmer's job easier and more importantly for the small landowner, reduces his income and increases the yield from his lands.

These technologies are available; Pakistani entrepreneurs are producing them at a price affordable to a majority of the farming community and what worth are local governments if they cannot support those who find the machinery beyond their resources; a system can certainly be evolved for collective utilization of essential machinery. Local authorities can purchase it and make it available to farmers at nominal rental.

All through the last year, the government officials wore a smug expression and continued declaring that the wheat situation was satisfactory, promising that there would be no shortage or import. That position was reversed on December 16, last year when Passco was authorized by the Economic Coordination Committee to import 0.5 million tonnes of wheat. It was a panicked button pushed in a hurry without publicly admitting that a crisis was staring the country in the eyes.

Whatever the explanation and the argument to defend the decision, it confirms shortage of the commodity and, if the government is willing to accept reality, underlines the fact that the crop now in the fields may not be sufficient to foot the domestic consumption bill. Meanwhile, the price of atta is soaring and placing a backbreaking financial burden on the poor and causing unease to the middle class.

The federal ministry of food, agriculture and livestock (Minfal) has stuck to its guns, reiterating that the existing stocks with the private and public sectors were sufficient for the country's requirements up to the end of the current food year but, in a bid to enhance the 'strategic reserves', a decision was taken to import half a million tonnes of wheat.

Hopefully, the strategic reserves would not prove to be something like strategic depth that Pakistan had tried to establish in Afghanistan in recent years. The policy was abandoned because of the developments on the international and the regional landscape.

All portents suggest a difficult period ahead, the general satisfaction of Minfal not withstanding. Positive handouts on the state of sowing, particularly in Punjab and the NWFP are a distance apart from the state of fields because the turf for wheat cultivation was tampered by the government's dilly-dallying on the demands of the sugar industry.

Reports from Sindh concede delayed sowing. The authorities have admitted that the 'cultivation of wheat is slow in Sindh due to the standing crop of sugarcane'. That has happened in Punjab also, wherever wheat replaced cane. The delay in starting the crushing resulted in late sowing which is an established prescription for reducing the yield.

The government tried to retrieve the situation by increasing the support price of wheat but the decision was late. It is doubtful if it acted as incentive for farmers. These issues need to be tackled early to enable the farming community plan and make arrangements accordingly.

Information disseminated by the government continuously lays stress on the increase in acreage under wheat. This means that the agriculture policy is not moving in the right direction. What needs to be enhanced is the productivity of land so that maximum is extracted from the minimum input. This is vital, particularly in view of the dwindling water resources.

In any case, an agriculture-based economy should not be suffering from the shortage of essential food items. But this is happening regularly in Pakistan and the foodstuff the country is qualified to produce are imported at a huge cost. This is obviously the result of policies failing to exploit the national resources in the interest of the populace.

Like many other areas of life, the problem is based in the management. Mercifully, Minfal has not yet fallen to some retired general but, considering everything, generalist civil servants have not proved better-equipped for presiding over the agriculture. It is no more everyone's cup of tea but the job of professionals.

The government has the quality professionals in its ranks but they are disallowed a say in decision-making. Past experiences inform that the productivity improved whenever Minfal was headed by a professionally-qualified person and downward trends set in when the assignment was handed to individuals whose interest in the agriculture is scant and whose acumen of the field is even less.

The government will have to put professional experts in command and instruct them to plan for long term if it wishes to obtain the best results from the country's potential in agriculture.

That is the only reliable way out of the vicious circle of shortages. Otherwise, Pakistan would never be able to attain food security and would continue to rely on imports of the commodities it can produce. The decision rests with the leadership.