-DAWN - Business; December 31, 2007

Published December 31, 2007
Vietnam

Vietnam has emerged on to the world stage as one of the most attractive investment destinations. However, growing exposure to global markets has complicated macroeconomic management and heightened the urgency of reform in state-controlled industries. It is experiencing strong economic growth in 2007, mainly fuelled by strong non-oil exports, investment and private consumption. GDP grew 8.3pc year on year in the first nine months of 2007, with industry and manufacturing expanding by 10.2 and 12.5pc respectively.

Agricultural growth stood at 3pc, with a record growth of aquaculture (9pc) compensating for a slowdown in the poultry and livestock sub-sector. The last few months have witnessed new avian influenza outbreaks. While these have been marginal, this is an area that will require vigilance by the authorities. The service sector has also recorded high growth in the first nine months of the year (8.5pc) thanks to strong performance of retail trade, tourism, transportation and financial services. Domestic consumption and investment have also been strong.

Gross and retail sales grew by nearly 23pc in the year to September 2007. The share of the state sector continues to decrease and represents only about 11pc of the total by now. Total investment rose by 16.3pc in the first nine months of 2007. In current prices, it now represents 42.5pc of GDP. Investment by the domestic private sector increased by nearly 28pc and now accounts for about 17pc of GDP.

Inflation has accelerated in recent months, generating considerable debate among policy makers on the appropriate response. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 8.8pc in the year to September (7.3pc from beginning of the year). The annual figure for 2007 is likely to remain in the single digits, but barely. Given Vietnam