DAMASCUS: Syria, no longer worried it might be the next US target for regime change after Iraq, is emerging from Western and Arab ostracism without sacrificing its anti-Israeli alliance with Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas.
No one expects a dramatic warming of US-Syrian ties, but Syrian analysts and Western diplomats spoke of modest prospects for constructive engagement after years of mutual mistrust.
“Nothing much has changed yet, but there is more potential than before,” said one diplomat, citing last month’s US-hosted Israeli-Palestinian talks in Annapolis, which Syria attended.
Just two years ago, Damascus was under fierce US pressure over its role in Iraq, Lebanon and Palestinian territories.
The assassination of Lebanese ex-premier Rafik al-Hariri alienated any remaining Arab or European support for Syria, even though it said it had no hand in the February 2005 killing, and it was forced to end its 29-year military presence in Lebanon.
Since then, US difficulties in Iraq, rising Iranian influence and Israel’s failure to crush Hezbollah guerillas in last year’s Lebanon war have helped to restore Syrian fortunes.
“Syria is rising now and the United States is collapsing in the region,” said Imad al-Shuaibi, a Syrian political analyst familiar with government thinking. He dismissed the idea that a UN tribunal to try Hariri’s killers posed any threat to Syria.
Signs abound that Damascus’s isolation is eroding.
Washington altered its agenda for the Nov 27 Annapolis talks to secure Syria’s presence. Russia plans a follow-up meeting next year to try to revive Syrian-Israeli peacemaking. French, Italian and Turkish leaders have called President Bashar al-Assad in recent weeks to seek his help in resolving the political crisis over Lebanon’s presidential election.
Syria is now looking to improve ties with Saudi Arabia and other US-backed Arab countries before an Arab League summit in Damascus in March, without dropping Iran and its other allies.
“After Annapolis, we hope we are entering a new phase,” a European diplomat said. “Syria’s overall behaviour on Annapolis and Lebanon shows it is trying to reintegrate itself in the Arab family and play things in a way that would benefit the region.”
Syria, which demands the return of the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights as part of a comprehensive Middle East peace, remains deeply sceptical of US and Israeli intentions.
Damascus would not make gestures to please its US and Israeli foes, who want Syria to ditch Iran and its other allies before any peace talks have achieved results, Altaqi said.
The fragile US-Syrian opening at Annapolis seems already to have eased their proxy struggle in Lebanon, where US-backed factions have accepted army chief Michel Suleiman, who is well-regarded in Damascus, as a compromise choice for president.
Syria may have cooperated with French-led mediation efforts, but International Crisis Group analyst Peter Harling said the fears of Lebanon’s anti-Syrian camp that its interests had been sold out as part of a US deal with Damascus were exaggerated.
Iraq is less of a US-Syrian flashpoint than it was for several years after the 2003 invasion when Washington relentlessly accused Damascus of allowing foreign Islamist militants to cross its territory to combat US forces there.
US generals now say the flow of fighters has decreased.
Syria’s secular leaders have come to share an interest with Washington in seeing Sunni tribesmen defeat Al Qaeda in Iraq.
“Al Qaeda is very dangerous for Syrian interests. If they win in Iraq, their next confrontation will be Syria,” Syrian analyst Shuaibi said. “More than 100 of them are in jail here.”—Reuters