KARACHI, Dec 5: With the release of its 2008 election manifesto by party chairperson Benazir Bhutto, the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) has formally launched its election campaign. Meanwhile, the Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam-F (JUI-F) is the other party determined to contest the upcoming Jan 8 elections.
Although both the PPP and the JUI-F differ ideologically, they agree on one point: that the opposition must not leave the field open for a walkover by the pro-Musharraf parties, the Pakistan Muslim League-Q (PML-Q) and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM).
Both these parties, which represent the two major political alliances in the opposition – the Alliance for the Restoration of Democracy (ARD) and the Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal (MMA) respectively – do not agree with the stand of boycotting the elections, taken by the other major components of these alliances, the Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) in the ARD and the Jamaat-i-Islami in the MMA.
The parties opposed to participation in the elections are of the view that in the given situation, the elections cannot be free or fair unless the judiciary is restored to its pre-Nov 3 status and the election commission is reconstituted upon consultation with the opposition parties. The leadership of both the Nawaz Sharif-led PML-N and the Qazi Hussain Ahmed-dominated Jamaat-i-Islami also oppose the participation of opposition parties in the elections on the grounds that contesting the elections amounts to endorsing the Provisional Constitution Order 2007.
These points of view notwithstanding, both these parties have not only allowed members to file nomination papers, they have also finalised the lists of candidates who may be issued party tickets. At the same time, however, they have threatened to withdraw their candidature on Dec 15 if the charter of demands, being prepared by an eight-member committee led by Senator Mian Raza Rabbani, is not accepted by President Pervez Musharraf.
Political analysts believe that quite apart from the threat of an election boycott, the country is standing at the crossroads.
Critical juncture
The country has been facing threats from extremist forces in the northern parts of Pakistan as well as a rebellion in the Balochi-speaking belt in Balochistan. After the removal of the main irritant of the COAS uniform, the US and its western allies appear to be in no mood to withdraw their support from their tested ally, President Pervez Musharraf.
This message has been reiterated by President Bush a number of times. In the present crisis, it is now crystal clear that power not only flows from the barrel of the gun but also with the backing of the superpowers. In the third world countries such as Pakistan, US interference or the influence of the White House is no longer a secret — not only the politicians but even the generals cannot survive without a nod from these quarters.
Therefore, if any party were to withdraw from the election fray, it would have to wait for five years outside parliament since the masses do not appear in any mood to come on the streets despite the rocketing prices of essential items. Therefore, said analysts, no party – except the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf, whose members did not file nomination papers –could afford to go into isolation by withdrawing from the race. They further pointed out that the PPP’s election campaign was in full swing since the Ms Bhutto’s return after an 8-year self-imposed exile, since not a day went by when the party was not in the news. The PML-N was in a similar situation, they said, since the election campaign had been running since Mr Sharif’s earlier, thwarted attempt to return to Pakistan was widely discussed by the national and international news media.
The analysts were of the view that JUI-F supporters were already abreast of the situation because of the seminaries spread all over the country where annual convocations were held for the distribution of certificates. These occasions, they said, provided the party leadership with the opportunity to deliberate on the issues facing the people of the country and the Ummah in general. “These convocations are good occasions to create awareness about the need to enforce Islamic Sharia in the country,” the analysts said, pointing out that since the JUI-F is a religious party, its followers need not hold large gatherings repeatedly because their message is regularly conveyed to the religious electorate. Furthermore, such a religiously-inclined electorate was in no danger of being swayed by the manifestos of the secular parties, including the PPP and the different wings of the PML.
The Pakistan Muslim League-Q (PML-Q) and the MQM also do not need much campaigning since they have remained in the news during the past five years and the citizenry is aware of their performance and the development work they have undertaken.
Meanwhile the Jamaat-i-Islami has the vast network of the party cadre which dominated the opposition, particularly the MMA which remained in the field throughout the past five years by observing protest days on one account or the other.
According to the analysts, the other parties have organisations in all the four provinces but enjoy a vote bank in just one or two provinces, such as the Awami National Party in the NWFP and the Balochistan National Party in Balochistan. These parties, the said, were awaiting signals to start campaigning for their candidates.