WASHINGTON: The recent upper-house elections in Japan served as a wakeup call for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. His party, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), lost its upper-house majority for the first time since its establishment in 1955, making Abe vulnerable to political opponents who may seek to block important legislation and pressure him to call early lower-house elections.

Abe rode to power almost a year ago — in September 2006, propelled by his pledge to continue the reformist policies of popular former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. But it is one thing to pledge and another to perform. In 2005, Koizumi’s then-stagnant poll numbers shot up by taking on the anti-reform barons in his own party opposed to the privatisation of the postal system. Privatising the postal system in Japan was a particularly bold move because Japan Post not only delivers mail, but also serves as the nation’s main savings and insurance institution, with $3 trillion in assets. In contrast to Koizumi, Abe reinstated several of the so-called “postal rebels” — those LDP opponents of postal privatisation whom Koizumi purged from the party in 2005 — in return for a pledge of future obedience.

Abe’s trade record has also been disappointing. The prime minister has been insistent that he is eager to sign free trade agreements with Japan’s neighbours, such as South Korea and Australia, to counter China’s burgeoning economic clout. (He signed a landmark free trade agreement with Thailand this past April.) Yet in November, he let his agricultural minister veto an effort to abolish farm import barriers, once again signalling to rice farmers that their unique public privilege would not be jeopardised.

A year into his tenure, it is apparent that the prime minister has taken a surprisingly cautious stance in his policies. Pressure from the LDP’s old guard has made Abe less of a reformer than political observers expected after his high-minded campaign rhetoric last year. Also, the ongoing pensions crisis — millions of records were misplaced, thus complicating the delivery of benefits — has made Abe appear incompetent. In May, the scandal-plagued agricultural minister, Toshikatsu Matsuoka, committed suicide, further damaging the image of Abe’s government.

Meanwhile, the Japanese people remain anxious about the future of their social-welfare system, which will be strained over the coming decades by a shrinking population. They also grouse about inequality and a prime minister who seems out of touch with such bread-and-butter concerns.

Of course, Abe has time to polish his image. It may well be that the recent election setback will spur the prime minister to chart a new course. Japan desperately needs economic reform, an overhaul of its healthcare system, and a trade policy that takes advantage of its economic power. (Japan remains the world’s second largest economy, behind only the United States.) Thus far, China has proved more adept at trade diplomacy in East Asia, where the past few years have seen a slew of bilateral and multilateral FTAs.

Will a new Abe emerge this fall, chastened by the July election? Time will tell of course, but if he is keen on keeping his position, he may have to summon the bold perspective of his predecessor and get the reform agenda back on track. Abe does have the ability to connect with the public. He is plain spoken and is known to go to local restaurants without a security entourage, engaging in conversation with nearby diners.

Abe is fond using the phrase “beautiful Japan”. The expression has not yet caught the public’s attention, but it shows he’s trying to create a positive identity for his country. If he can hone his public persona and enact popular reforms, perhaps Abe still has time to recover his step.—Dawn/The Washington Post News Service