ANTANANARIVO: Madagascar’s politics have turned surreal.

Two men claim to be president, one recognized legally, the other by the people, and on Monday two rival cabinets will turn up for work in the capital.

Antananarivo Mayor Marc Ravalomanana declared himself president on Feb 22, accusing the government of rigging presidential elections against him last December. And as far as most of the capital is concerned, his word is law.

In his palace on the outskirts of the city meanwhile, veteran President Didier Ratsiraka, supported by the international community, insists he still runs the country and has declared martial law in the capital to quash Ravalomanana’s people-based bid for power.

Analysts and diplomats are scratching their heads to try and make sense of a situation stranger than fiction.

“Something’s got to give at some point,” one Western diplomat in Antananarivo said. “Two presidents, two prime ministers, two governments. You couldn’t make it up if you tried.”

ALL EYES ON MILITARY: Analysts said the role of the military would be key. Martial law is widely seen as Ratsiraka’s last chance to regain control of his capital. But until now, the law has not been applied.

There are no extra troops in the city, a curfew has been ignored, and Ravalomanana’s supporters were able to hold a mass rally on Saturday to welcome their new ministers.

Antananarivo’s new military governor, appointed by Ratsiraka on Friday, says martial law will be applied, but only once he has been able to let residents know about it officially.

“The law has officially taken effect but in practice it stipulates it must be published first,” General Leon Claude Raveloarison said, explaining that with most radio and television stations off air because of the political crisis, it had been hard to access residents.

“Since Friday, I haven’t been able to intervene officially, because I haven’t got the message to the people.”

MONDAY A MAJOR TEST: Analysts say Monday will be a major test for Ratsiraka and his military governor. Ravalomanana’s ministers are due to move into office to start work, and if they manage to take over the ministries with no resistance, it is difficult to see how Ratsiraka could bounce back.

“It will depend on whether the military governor orders the military to defend the ministries,” Elie Rajaonarison, an aide to Ravalomanana said. “If there are military who try to intervene there will be unavoidable clashes, because the population will not let itself be beaten.”

One thing that Ravalomanana can be sure of is that, in the capital, he has the support of the people. Hundreds of thousands of citizens have taken part in mass protests to support his bid for power over the last two months, and as far as they are concerned, Ratsiraka’s era is over.

What he lacks however, is the support of the international community which has almost unanimously condemned his actions as unconstitutional.

Diplomats say a delegation from the Organization of African Unity (OAU) is due in Antananarivo this week to try and restart negotiations between the two men, but Ravalomanana says the time for political negotiations has passed.

Though he admits his self-declaration as president was unconstitutional, he says it was the only path open to him after weeks of peaceful protests and strikes failed to get him the recount of December’s elections that he wanted.

“The international community doesn’t know (the situation),” he told Reuters in an interview. “They think we took power by force, but we didn’t. This is the wish of the people. They should come to Madagascar and see the reality on the ground.”

Though it remains unclear how much support Ravalomanana has in the countryside beyond Antananarivo — traditionally Ratsiraka’s stronghold — his advisers say the provinces will succumb easily once the capital is won. His government also says it is prepared to take things slowly.

“My government has only just been nominated,” Ravalomanana’s Prime Minister Jacques Sylla said on Friday. “We will...take political power, but it will happen gradually.”

Observers say it is impossible to predict the next twist in this increasingly bizarre saga.

“All we are waiting for is for Ratsiraka to step down,” resident Fred Rahanivoson said at a ceremony to present Ravalomanana’s cabinet to the people. “If he doesn’t the new ministers might have to force the old ones out, but they will have to leave in the end whether they want to or not, because it’s the will of the people and the majority that counts.”—Reuters