YANGON: Peaceful scientific research, a solution to Myanmar's power shortages, or the first step in acquiring nuclear weapons?
Russia's agreement to build a nuclear research reactor in the former Burma has angered rights activists and left analysts wondering what the ruling junta's secretive generals are up to.
“By our standards, the military regime doesn't allocate its resources in a rational or logical sort of way,” Trevor Wilson, a former Australian ambassador to Myanmar, told newsmen.
Russia's atomic energy agency, Rosatom, said on Tuesday it had signed a deal to build a 10-megawatt, low-enriched uranium reactor as part of a centre for nuclear research in the impoverished Southeast Asian nation.
Rosatom said the centre would be under the control of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), but an IAEA official said they were not yet aware of the project.
“The IAEA has not been informed by Myanmar about the construction of any nuclear facility,” the official said in Vienna.
“If Myanmar was to operate a nuclear facility, it would be subject to IAEA safeguards inspections” as it was a party to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, the official said.
Russia, along with China, has become a major supporter and supplier of arms to Myanmar's junta, which is accused by the West of suppressing human rights and political opposition.
According to a 2004 paper by Australian security expert Andrew Selth, Myanmar approached Russia in 2000 for help in starting a civilian nuclear programme, but Moscow pulled out of a deal to build a research reactor three years later.
The junta has yet to comment on Tuesday's announcement, but official statements in the past have referred to nuclear power for “peaceful medical purposes”, Selth said.
WEAPON AIM UNLIKELY: Dissidents and exile groups have said in the past that Yangon might embark on a weapons programme, but analysts say there is no evidence yet to back that up.
“Few objective observers question the ruthlessness of the military government in Rangoon or its determination to cling to power,” wrote Selth, now a research fellow at the Griffith Asia Institute in Australia.
“However, an attempt to acquire a nuclear weapon seems completely out of character for a government that, ever since independence, has had a long history of active participation in global disarmament initiatives,” he said.
Such talk has been fuelled lately by Myanmar's recently repaired ties with North Korea, which the United States considers a rogue state with a nuclear arms programme.
Even if the generals had the political will to pursue a weapons programme, the technical and resource hurdles “would constitute formidable obstacles”, Selth said.
Neighbour and historical foe Thailand was not worried about a reactor in Myanmar “as long as it is under the close supervision of the IAEA”, Foreign Ministry spokesman Piriya Khempon said.
“Other countries in the region, namely Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand, have research units and they are all under the supervision of the IAEA,” he said.
In fact, some analysts believe the generals' desire for their own reactor is more about status and prestige, although activists say the money would be better spent elsewhere.
Yangon has suffered chronic power blackouts as the economy shows signs of creaking under what analysts say has been four decades of economic mismanagement by the military.
“Of course, we would like to see our country walk tall in the international community. But we lag our neighbours on social, education and health standards and it is crucial that we upgrade these standards first,” student activist leader Ko Ko Gyi said.
“Acquiring nuclear technology under these circumstances will put a heavier burden on the country,” he said.—Reuters