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Published 07 May, 2007 12:00am

World commodity report

Gold

Gold prices have fallen in recent days, tracking a rise in the dollar and weaker oil. Gold fell as low as $671.60 an ounce on April 30. Prices have fallen three per cent in a week from an 11 month high of $693.60 an ounce.

“Gold may fall possibly towards the mid-$660s, but from there probably we will establish a base to move higher again,” said James Moore, analyst at TheBullionDesk.com. “The market is under profit-taking pressure, but the outlook of gold is bullish as there are many bargain hunters willing to buy on price dips,” said Shuji Sugata, manager at Mitsubishi Corp Futures and Securities Limited.

High and volatile prices in April hit gold imports into Turkey, one of the world’s top consumers of the metal. Bullion imports fell 14.2 per cent to 12.2 tonnes during the month from a year earlier, but the drop was just two per cent to 49.4 tonnes in the first four months of 2007.

Silver prices mirrored the movement of gold. On the London Bullion Market, silver prices slid to $13.35 an ounce at late fixing on April 27, from $13.87 a week earlier.

Sister metals palladium and platinum hit multi-month peaks before falling in line with other precious metals. Platinum hit $1,339 an ounce on April 23, the highest level since November. Palladium reached $387, an ounce, last seen on May 17 last year.

On the London Platinum and Palladium Market, platinum decreased to $1,281 an ounce at the late fixing on April 27, from $1,317 a week earlier. Palladium dropped to $371 an ounce, from $382.

Copper/Nickel:

Copper prices have risen slightly in recent days on news about a Peruvian mine strike. London Metal Exchange (LME) copper for delivery in three months gained $80 or one per cent from the close of $7840/$7845 per tonne on April 30.

The largest mining union in world number three copper and zinc producer launched a national wide strike on April 30, demanding improved benefits.

Copper’s failure to match earlier weeks high of $8100, was supported by weak US housing data, reviving worries of a slowdown in metals demand. Sales of existing homes in the United States dropped 8.4 per cent in March, their biggest tumble in more than 18 years, posting a much bigger drop than expected.

“The more important factor for global copper demand is Chinese GDP growth, which remains very strong,” Dresdner Kleinwort said in a note. Robust growth outlook from China boosting the expectations of strong demand continuing through the seasonally bush second quarter, falling inventories and possible supply disruptions looming have lifted copper prices 28 per cent in 2007.

Copper stocks having already weakened by 23 per cent since early February, the market is very sensitive to any news coming from the supply side.

Meanwhile nickel prices moved down because of an increase in stocks. Nickel stocks have fallen more than 27 per cent since the start of the year, with available stocks of nickel currently stands at 3,438, up 480 tonnes from two days earlier but still slightly below a day’s global consumption. Strong demand from stainless steel mills and low level of inventories have driven up nickel prices around 50 per cent since the start of the year.

On the London Metal Exchange (LME), nickel was $300 softer during the official session after hitting a fresh record of $50,200 on April 24.

Oil

Crude oil prices rose above $68 a barrel on concerns over tight US gasoline reserves. The stocks are at a seasonal six year low ahead of peak summer demand. Data released by the US Department of Energy shows that motor fuel reserves sank by 2.8 million barrels in the week ending April 20. That marked the 11th consecutive weekly drop for gasoline inventories and compared with market expectations for a lighter fall of just 500,000 barrels.

Traders meanwhile set aside data released that showed a dramatic slowdown in the United States economy, which weakened in the first quarter of 2007 to its worse growth pace in four years, expanding at a pace of just 1.3 per cent. However, crude futures held firm despite the prospect of reduced demand in the world’s biggest energy-consuming nation.

Iran is the world’s fourth-largest oil exporter. Traders fear that Western pressure over Iran’s disputed nuclear programme could prompt the Islamic republic to cut crude exports in retaliation.

Elsewhere, traders tracked the fall-out from the recent presidential elections in Nigeria, which is Africa’s biggest crude oil producer. Nigeria’s current production is down an estimated 25 per cent owing to violence in the crude-rich Niger Delta. On April 27 in London, a barrel of Brent North Sea crude for delivery in June increased to $67.66, compared with $66.30 a week earlier. In New York, a barrel of crude for delivery in June rose to $65.30 from $62.70.

Coffee/Cocoa:

Coffee prices have fallen to six month lows in New York as speculators banked profits. Coffee futures hit 106.75 US cents on April 26, the lowest level since October 20. On the following day on the LIFFE, Robusta quality for July delivery fell to $1614 a tonne, compared with $1626 a week earlier. On the Nybot, Arabica for July delivery dropped to 107.10 US cents a pound, from 110.65 cents.

Cocoa prices have also fallen. Prices had been under pressure recently as fears over the dry weather in West Africa have eased, Sucden analyst said. On the LIFFE, the price of cocoa for July delivery retreated to £981 a tonne from £1,020 a week earlier. On the New York Board of Trade (Nybot), the July contract fell to $1,820 a tonne, from $1905 for May delivery.

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