WASHINGTON/ISLAMABAD, Feb 9: The decision of the World Bank-appointed neutral expert for the Baglihar dam may not end the dispute between Pakistan and India as the report he is expected to release on Feb 12 favours both.

Sources told Dawn on Saturday Swiss expert Professor Raymond Lafitte had not accepted Pakistan’s premise that the dam violates the 1960 Indus Water Treaty. But Prof. Lafitte also rejected India’s position that there was no need for changes in the dam as it fulfilled all requirements of the treaty.

In doing so, Prof Lafitte is expected to suggest that India reconsider the size and design of the spillway it is constructing at Baglihar

In Islamabad, an official cautioned that everything would not go Pakistan’s way. However, he was hopeful that the recommendations would not cause `material loss’ to Pakistan.

“On many points it (the report) favours India while on others it favours Pakistan,” said a technical expert in Washington who has seen the initial report. “It will be up to India and Pakistan to continue to quarrel over this dispute or use their new found spirit of reconciliation to settle it.”

The government of occupied Kashmir told the legislative council on Friday that the construction of Baglihar project would be completed by Dec 31.

Islamabad had initially argued that the construction itself was a violation of the 1960 treaty, which gave Pakistan exclusive rights over three rivers – Jhelum, Chenab and Indus. India has to seek permission for any construction plans on these rivers.

Prof. Laffite had shown his initial report to Indian and Pakistani officials in November. Pakistan objected to some points in the report and urged the expert to reconsider it. India, too, had some objections.

The official in Islamabad said Pakistan was confident that it would be vindicated on three out of four objections it had made.

This would mean that Pakistan’s share would remain unaffected even if it were balanced out on a weekly basis.

The official said although the report would not recommend scrapping of the dam, it would ask India to reduce its height.

Even a reduction of two to three metres would be a `moral setback’ for India, the official said.

The Baglihar, a concrete gravity dam, has a height of 144.5 metres and is 317 metres long at the top. Its main spillway has six submerged radial gates, 10m wide x 10.5m high.

The chute spillway contains two crest radial gates, 12m wide x 19m high. The reservoir has live storage capacity of 15Mm3 with a gross head of 130m.

Each of the two horseshoe-shaped diversion tunnels are 939 metres long and have a diameter of 10.15 metres. The circular headrace tunnel is 2,070m long while the tailrace tunnel is 160 metres long, 10m wide and 19-27.5m-high.

Pakistan has objected to the dam’s design, size and water storage capacity and wants India to consider other technical pursuits or modify the design.

The disputes relate to project configuration, free board, spillway (ungated or gated), firm power, poundage, level of intake, inspection during plugging of low level intake, and controversy over whether it would be a low weir or a dam supported by engineering calculations related to the Indus Water Treaty.

Pakistan also has a problem with the poundage in the operating pool. At 37.722 million cubic meters, it exceeds twice the poundage water level agreed in the treaty. Yet another objection relates to the intake for the turbine. Pakistan believes it is not located at the highest level, as required by the treaty.

Experts in Pakistan say that the dam will deprive Pakistan of 321,000 acre feet of water during the three months of Rabi season and will have far reaching consequences on agriculture, as well.

The dam would cause serious setback to wheat production in Punjab, the biggest wheat producing province.

Non-availability of irrigation water during Rabi would significantly reduce the yield or may cause complete crop failures if India goes to the maximum capacity in blocking water in times of crop needs.

Syed Shahid Husain, a former secretary in Pakistan's ministry of water & power, explained in an article in South Asian Journal: “The basic dispute between the two governments arises more out of mistrust by Pakistan of India’s intention because, at some point in future, once it acquires the capacity to store water, India can easily withhold it during shortage and release it during excess, the precise opposite of what the lower riparian state would want.”

Pakistan first took this issue to the India-Pakistan Indus Commission last year and in 2005 it had asked the World Bank to appoint a neutral expert.