KARACHI, Dec 11: Pressures, doubts, fears of panic and rumors gripped the currency market on Monday while the importers found it hard to decide whether to buy now or wait.
Absence of exporters did not allow the market to react openly to express the real impact while the pressure from State Bank kept the currency dealers in fear of being watched closely.
Despite loud announcement of the State Bank on Sunday that there was no possibility of depreciation of rupee, the currency market and banks were doubtful, feeling there could be correction if not any major slash in rupee value. They had to answer thousands of enquiries about the future dollar-rupee relation from the clients, importers, exporters, business community and common people.
“The absence of exporters kept the market one-sided and only importers were there,” said Asif Ahmed, a currency dealer. Due to the closure of New York currency markets, exporters used to remain absent on Monday in Pakistan.
“Most possibly the exporters would not sell their dollars during the next 3 to 5 days and this could hit the dollar prices to go up,” said Asif.
However, rupee slashed its gain made against the dollar on last Saturday. In the inter-bank market the dollar settled at Rs60.91. On Saturday rupee gained 10 paisa to Rs60.96 after the news that the IMF believed that the rupee was over-valued.
“The market witnessed big fluctuation on Monday as rupee returned to 60.86 to 60.87 in the early hours but finally it ended at Rs60.91,” said Ashraf Ali, another currency dealer.
Analyst said that the exporters had been violating rules and could easily keep some of export proceeds to bring those later or send the same through channels other than banking.
The exporters may skip coming to the market in the hope of getting better result in coming days.
“If they succeed to remain absent, the dollar would certainly gain and rupee would cross the level of 61,” said Ali.
Bankers said that payment of hundreds of millions of dollars were due at the end of the year on account of companies dividends, profits, and debt servicing, etc.
“Any depreciation of rupee could cost billions of rupees and this is a clear sign that there is no chance of depreciation at this moment,” said Aleem Abid, a banker,
Analysts said there was no panic in the market but the pressure from the State Bank was visible. Large banks, which used to work on behalf of the State Bank to stabilize the exchange rate, were ready to provide dollars while at the same time they were prepared to get back dollars as forward buying through swap.
This ‘swap’ method has been useful to bring the market steady.
In the open market also rupee shed wait, which it gained on Saturday. The dollar was traded at Rs61 to Rs61.10. On Saturday, the it was traded at Rs61.20.
However, sellers in the open market were extremely limited and the trading remained limited to buyers.
“Sellers come on Tuesday because the New York currency market remained close and I believe the dollar would further reduce on Tuesday,” said a currency dealer at Glaxy International, a currency exchange company.
