RURAL Sindh is hardly 15-20 miles away from Karachi but it is decades away from the modern age. Although Karachi remains the country’s economic powerhouse, its rural areas continue to be insulated, and more than half of its 18 million population lives in abject poverty. Out of these, about 70 per cent remain dependent on agriculture- crops, livestock, forestry and fishery.
The plight and misery of the rural population was brought to limelight when Mohammad Mian Soomro was heading the province as a governor and Dr Hafeez Sheikh was its finance minister.
Independent research bodies like Social Policy and Development Centre have also identified factors that contribute to growing rural poverty.
In its recent report, the World Bank relies heavily on these findings while addressing the agricultural development issues in the province. The Sindh government has, however, come out with facts that are self-contradictory.
Given its feudal traditions, progressive ideas and reforms have always taken more time to take roots in the interior of Sindh than in most other regions of Pakistan”, is a candid observation of the recent World Bank report entitled, ‘Securing Sindh’s Future: Prospects and Challenges’.
The report diagnoses that “Sindh has the highest incidence of absolute landlessness, highest share of tenancy and the lowest share of land ownership in the country, according to latest agricultural census.
Wealthy landlords with holdings in excess of 100 acres, who form less than one per cent of all farmers in the province, own 150 per cent more land than combined holdings of 62 per cent of small farmers with land holdings less than five acres.”
No wonder that the small farmers have virtually no access to rural bank credit and their dependence is entirely on the local trader, the middle man (arthi) or the local landlord who— according to Jehangir Tareen Committee report on Rural Financing—lends money at 70 and even 100 per cent rate of interest.
These observations made in the World Bank report have not been well received by the provincial government. In its rejoinder, after soliciting views from various administrative departments, the government has come out with data on agriculture production which is being questioned by the farmers and agricultural economists and is contrary to what the provincial government has itself been saying in the previous years.
For last few years, the Sindh government has been attributing growing poverty in its rural areas to the damage of crops and live stocks caused by continuous drought for three years. The World Bank too endorsed this view and held water scarcity as number one issue that confronts the provincial agriculture and reduces crop production.
But the Sindh Planning and the Development and Agriculture Department have disputed the crop production data for major crops given in the World Bank report. According to provincial Agricultural Department, not only has the production of major crops gone up (other than sugar cane and cotton) but also the yield per hectare has also been one of the highest in the country.
Independent economists and the World Bank have held both— the drought and the policymakers- responsible for the low agricultural production. Agriculture in Sindh, unfortunately, is water stressed. A geographically disadvantageous location at the extreme lower end of the Indus basin system with a historical scant rain fall makes agriculture in the province entirely dependent on the irrigation system of River Indus.
This dependence has resulted in an oddity as explained by a farmer-cum-agriculture economist: “when we need water, we don’t get its sufficient supply but when we don’t want it at all—as in times of floods, our fields are submerged with it”.
While a three-year long drought (2000-01-03) had hit hard agricultural production, the recent devastating rains exposed lack of drainage and damaged crops in certain parts.
“Nature has always been kind to Sindh but the current hardships are man made” he lamented attributing it to indifferent attitude of the policy makers in Islamabad and Karachi.
In the times of drought, Sindh’s share in irrigation water was cut down by 25 and 43 per cent, 28 per cent and 54 per cent consecutively in four seasons between 2000-02. In the year 2002-03, the rain fall was above than normal which simply reduced the water shortages to 18 and 34 per cent in kharif and Rabi seasons.
”In areas like Khairpur, Dadu and lower Larkana, river flows receded to such an extent that river bed was cultivated” recalls the farmer. Sea intrusion in certain talukas was one devastating effect of water scarcity that rendered 1.2 million acres of fertile land in Indus Delta totally barren.
‘”Only 10 per cent of the Indus Delta exists at present”, says an economist adding that, in 1978 the Indus Delta had timber forests spread over 2.63 million hectares which was reduced to 1.58 million hectares in 1990 and at present, it is less than half a million hectares.
A release of a minimum of 10 maf water downstream Kotri barrage is considered to be necessary to maintain a balance in Indus Delta and keep the sea away. But it is a disputed issue between Punjab and Sindh. Punjab sees water flow downstream Kotri as a wastage but Sindh considers it a matter of life and death. No solution seems to be in sight, worsening the environment and hurting agriculture.
The sea intrusion has turned the tube well water brackish at most of the places. Lakes have dried up causing migration of fishermen from Sindh hinterland to Karachi and even to Punjab. One economist said that quite a good number of fishermen were tempted by Talibans in Afghanistan to settle down in lakes and rivers in districts near Uzbekistan. But this is not confirmed.
The World Bank report notes an output decline of seven per cent in rice and 10 per cent in wheat during 1999-00 to 2003-04. Cotton and sugarcane too showed some fall in production during this period. But the drop in production of vegetables and pulses was more pronounced. It is amply manifested in Pakistan’s dependence on imports of sugar, cotton, pulses and vegetables in recent years.
Overall, crops cultivated in three quarters of the total area in Sindh have registered negative growth during last four years” notes the WB report that also declares in clear terms that, “in per capita terms, the provincial agricultural output was lower than what it was in the early 1990s, indicating that droughts have wiped out almost all the production gains made during the last one and half decades.
In its rejoinder note to be sent to World Bank, the Sindh government has questioned the data of the report and has claimed that except for sugarcane, all three major crops-wheat, cotton and rice-have shown growth in crop output during the five- year period (2001-02 to 05-06). Wheat production is up from 2.10 million tons in 01-02 to 2.58 million tons in 05-06 showing the highest per hectare yield at 2,827 tons.
Cotton production is up from 2.44 million bales in 01-02 to 2.61 million bales in 05-06 with highest per hectare yield at 727. Rice production went up from 1.15 million tons in 01-02 to 1.72 million tons in 05-06. Sugar cane production however remained stagnant at 11.41 million tons to 11.24 million tons.
The Sindh government has also claimed improving the production of exportable fruits crops— banana , mangoes, dates and guava— as compared to 1999-00. The export of these products is said to have contributed in the economic well being of the province.
All this improvement in agricultural production should have led to substantial increase in the agricultural income tax (AIT). This has not happened. The collection of an insignificant amount from AIT has received a flak from the World Bank.
”Due to shortage of irrigation water, garden and orchards are not being cultivated. Consequently, the assessment and recovery of land and agricultural income tax decreases,” is the explanation of Sindh Board of Revenue.
In another explanation for low recovery of agricultural income tax in Sindh, the Board of Revenue contends that shortage in irrigation water has reduced cultivated area by one-third from 15.89 million acres to hardly half a million acres.
Dr Rajab Ali Memon who taught at Jamshoro Agricultural University for long and who is now an active farmer questions the credibility of Sindh government’s claims. He says the year 1998-99 should be considered a benchmark when the province got the highest share of irrigation water at 48 million acres feet leading to highest area of cultivation and the highest output in all major crops. Since then, with the onset of drought, the agriculture has received a major set back.
Livestock too suffered as farmers were forced to sell their animals and migrate to areas in neighbourhood of the three barrages. Nazeer Memon and Zulfikar Halepoto also endorsed the views expressed by Dr Rajab and asserted that agriculture in Sindh needs a sustained policy support, technical assistance from the government and credit from banks.