LAHORE, Sept 2: The killing of Baloch leader Nawab Akbar Bugti has been the main subject of discussions in political circles and the media ever since the tragic incident took place about a week ago. Except for the ruling coalition, which is divided on the subject, all other political parties have strongly condemned it. Smaller provinces expressed solidarity with the bereaved family — and resentment against the masterminds — by observing a near-complete strike on Friday. But the reaction witnessed in Punjab has been totally different - though not unpredictable.

The strike call got no significant response in Punjab, which will provide another reason to the other federating units to revile the province. Major ARD components like the PPP and the PML-N, and the six-party MMA alliance, which had given the call, failed to get the shutters down or transport off the roads.

The lack of reaction in Punjab to a tragedy which many fear will further stoke anti-federation feelings in Balochistan is being analysed from different angles. Some people say that ‘the business as usual’ in Punjab means that the chief minister is in full control of the province, and since he supports all policies being pursued by President Musharraf, there was no possibility of the traders or transporters observing the strike.

An indication that the strike call would receive no response was visible even on Wednesday when the ARD and the Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaaf held the in absentia funeral prayer for the Baloch leader outside the Lahore Press Club. Not more than a 100 people from a city of seven million were present. And those who took the trouble of turning up were scrambling to be shot by the squad of TV cameras. However, slogan-chanting that ensued in the aftermath of the prayer was in sharp contrast to the actual number of the turnout.

It can be said without fear of contradiction that parties which had decided to hold the funeral prayer had made no effort to ensure people’s participation. As a result, a very poor - rather negative - message was sent from what is called the political capital of Pakistan. Perhaps no more calls for such prayer meetings would be a better strategy for the opposition parties. This was a good opportunity for the opposition leaders from Punjab to tell the people of Balochistan that they don’t support the action against the late Mr Bugti. But that was not to be.

Analysts say that opposition parties have no leaders in Punjab who may be capable of mobilising the people. Those who are heading their respective parties may have other qualities but leadership. If their ‘performance’ on such a serious issue is made a yardstick, there is no possibility of the ARD or the MMA being able to launch a movement against the government. It is generally believed - and rightly so — that no movement succeeds unless Punjab takes an active part in it. Punjab seems in no mood to take part in any anti-government campaign for the time being.

Although the ARD and the MMA have decided to hold public meetings in various important cities of Punjab, turnout in these meetings would determine whether the people want the present rulers out or not. Smaller provinces regard Punjab as an ally of the establishment. There is lack of trust in the country’s most populous province, no matter what the issue.

Take the case of Kalabagh dam, for instance. Efforts have been made to allay the misgivings of the three provinces about the mega project, which Punjab believes will help meet the electricity and irrigation requirements of the country. But as of now no province is willing to budge from its stated position. Some government functionaries said that Punjab would not claim royalty if the project was set up. That offer too fell on deaf ears.

Then it was stated that Punjab would have no objection if the territory on which the project was to be built was given under the administrative control of the NWFP. Even that received no positive response from the opponents of the dam. Now the top leadership of Punjab says that it will not ask for its share of water, as long as the dam was agreed to be built. But no one seems to be interested.

This is the state of mistrust that exists between Punjab and the other provinces. The situation is not likely to change - and the gulf will not be bridged - unless better sense prevails among those calling the shots in Lahore and Islamabad.