Sindh’s farmers — particularly paddy growers — are set to suffer economic losses during the kharif season, primarily due to technical issues arising from ongoing works at Tarbela Dam that have disrupted water releases. Wapda’s hydropower project at the dam has faced exceptional delays, worsening the situation. The resulting water shortages have also triggered interprovincial discord, with Balochistan holding Sindh responsible for failing to release its due share from Guddu and Sukkur barrages.
Paddy growers were unable to prepare nurseries — a concentrated form of sowing paddy seeds in land — in the right bank command area of Sukkur Barrage. Once a nursery is prepared, or the seed is ready for transplantation after 35-40 days, farmers require adequate water availability in their fields to transplant the seedlings.
“If the seed remains in the nursery beyond the recommended period, it becomes vulnerable to pests, while delayed transplantation results in lower productivity,” said Ishaq Mughairi, a seasoned paddy grower from Shahdadkot district on the right bank. His area is irrigated by Sukkur Barrage’s North Western Canal (NWC), which also supplies water to Balochistan.
“But we do not have water even for drinking purposes now. Last year, I harvested only 40 maunds of paddy from my 50-60 acres because of water shortages,” he said. This year, he added, the situation remains no different.
Delay in ongoing works at Tarbela Dam has disrupted water releases, leading provinces to trade blame over distribution
The development works at Tarbela’s tunnels have constrained the Indus River System Authority (Irsa) in managing water releases to provinces. Tarbela is the primary source of water for Sindh, which has traditionally sought supplies during the early kharif season. It is usually denied. Mostly, shortages arise from reduced river flows and the operation of link canals. However, this year, delays in completing the ongoing works further disrupted flows at a time when Irsa could have ensured somewhat better releases.
Water is released by Irsa from reservoirs based on indents submitted by provinces. This year, fortunately, Tarbela had sufficient storage in April compared to the same period in 2025. With inflows of 43,000 cusecs, Tarbela’s storage stood at 1,449.82 feet (against a maximum conservation level of 1,550 feet), compared with 1,410.37 feet and inflows of 18,100 cusecs during the corresponding period last year.
With considerable storage in the reservoirs, Sindh continued to press Irsa for irrigation supplies for summer crops. Irsa initially reduced flows to Sindh as part of what it described as an attempt to “equalise” shortages among provinces — a rationale Sindh contested. Irsa maintained that Sindh had received excessive flows in April. Sindh, however, argued that it had utilised surplus flows generated by rains and that these could not be adjusted against its share under the Water Accord 1991.
Meanwhile, in a strongly worded letter on July 2, Irsa drew the attention of Wapda’s Member (Water) towards what it described as the “continuous defiance of Irsa’s regulatory directives”. The water regulator said that despite repeated assurances by Wapda at various forums regarding the operation of Tarbela’s T4 Low-Level Outlet (LLO), its operational indent of 170,000 cusecs remained unmet. Instead, only 152,400 cusecs were released, resulting in a shortfall of 17,400 cusecs.
“Against Sindh’s indent of 190,000 cusecs, only 168,000 cusecs were released, resulting in a shortfall of 22,000 cusecs. Similarly, against Punjab’s indented release of 147,700 cusecs, 125,200 cusecs were released, leaving a deficit of 22,500 cusecs,” he said.
He said that due to the non-operation of T4-LLO and the unavailability of Tarbela Units T2-6, Mangla had been relied upon to bridge the deficit, “only to see a loss of 0.5 MAF [million acre feet] in Mangla Dam during the critical filling period”. He urged Wapda to take measures to ensure compliance with Irsa’s directives to meet provincial water indents.
Irsa had previously expressed similar concerns at its Irsa Advisory Committee (IAC) meeting in October 2025, when reservoir storage levels were at a 10-year high. At the time, the authority raised objections over delays in the completion of Tunnel-5 (T5) and Tarbela Tunnel-4 Low-Level Outlet (T4-LLO). It had refused to extend the deadlines for completing the two tunnels and also rejected Wapda’s request to release nearly half of Tarbela’s storage within a month. Irsa maintained that these projects should have been completed years earlier.
Irsa had, in fact, issued a no-objection certificate (NOC) to Wapda on Oct 10, 2022, allowing it to carry out the works until June 29, 2025, after their commencement on Sept 29, 2022. However, the works remained incomplete, and Wapda did not provide any firm revised schedule for completion, according to Jam.
The 30,000 cusecs through the LLO also remained unavailable because its operation required the powerhouse to be shut down. Irsa said that, cumulatively, a flow of 75,000 cusecs was unavailable in May 2026 — a critical period when Sindh entered the peak kharif season. Work on T5 further constrained water flow management from Sindh’s perspective.
While Wapda wanted Irsa to maintain the storage level at or below 1,480 feet, the regulator sought storage of 1,520 feet by June to avoid the usual dip in system levels at a time when demand for supplies to non-perennial canals increases. Tarbela has two spillways and five tunnels and low-level outlets, which are operated according to requirements. However, these LLOs were undergoing development works that remained incomplete.
Wapda’s spokesperson, however, did not respond to queries sent to him.
As a result, shortages continued to intensify at Sindh’s three barrages, with Kotri recording the highest reduction of 65 per cent in flows until June 18. The water regulator increased releases in line with Sindh’s indent only after the issue was raised in parliament by MNAs from Sindh’s ruling party during the budget session.
When Irsa eventually improved releases for Sindh, these could not be fully utilised at Sukkur due to the low pond level, and additional flows were instead released towards Kotri, where the reduction in supplies subsequently declined considerably.
Balochistan, meanwhile, claimed that it was not receiving its due share from Sindh, despite Irsa releasing flows that included Balochistan’s allocation. It claimed that it had received 46 per cent less than its due supplies by July 3, receiving only 0.365 MAF against Irsa’s releases of 0.675 MAF — a deficit of 0.310 MAF.
Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, July 13th, 2026