FOR more than three decades after the Cold War, European stability rested on German leadership. Germany was the economic engine, the driving force behind European Union (EU) integration, and a symbol of continental stability.

However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine upended many long-held assumptions. The prosperity of Germany’s economic model rested on three seemingly un-shakable pillars: cheap energy from Russia, an export-oriented manufacturing industry, and a central position within the EU’s political architecture. This model worked remarkably well and effectively for decades. However, the conflict in Ukraine shattered these foundations quickly.

With stagnation in the German economy, an alternative new European powerhouse seems to be emerging in the shape of Poland, a country that is becoming a new centre of gravity, is tougher, more assertive and more geopolitically prepared. The Ukrainian war has contributed to the changing strategic value of Poland as an estimated 90 per cent of Western military aid to Ukraine passes through Polish territory.

According to analysts at the Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS-Denmark), Poland is projected to have by 2035 the largest ground force in EU. While Germany and France struggle with stagnation, the European Commission has projected Poland’s GDP growth at 3.5pc in 2026, far exceeding the regional average.

Poland’s rise — both in terms of military and economy — has proven that geogra- phical advantage can effectively be transformed into geopolitical influence through clear policy enactment and coherence, targeted investment, industrial capacity and convincing diplomacy.

Bobby Ciputra
Jakarta, Indonesia

Published in Dawn, July 8th, 2026