GENEVA: Global average temperatures are likely to continue at or near record levels this year and for the next four years afterwards, the UN’s weather agency warned on Thursday.
The 11 hottest individual years ever recorded all happened from 2015 onwards and the UN’s weather and climate agency said the trend was set to continue, with a new hottest-ever year “likely” before 2031.
There is a 75 per cent chance that the 2026-2030 five-year mean temperature will surpass the key threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said.
The WMO outlook comes as western Europe swelters under a “heat dome” of warm air, breaking temperature records for May in Britain and France.
UN weather agency predicts 2024 will be surpassed as warmest year on record within current decade
“Global average temperatures are likely to continue at or near record levels in the next five years,” the agency said.
“It is likely (86pc chance) that one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record.”
El Nino effect
“There is an El Nino predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year,” said Leon Hermanson, lead author of the WMO’s global update.
The last El Nino contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year on record and 2024 the all-time high at around 1.55 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average.
1.3 to 1.9 degrees Celsius range
The 2015 Paris climate accords aimed to limit global warming to well below two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels — and preferably below 1.5 degrees Celsius.
The targets are calculated relative to the 1850-1900 average, before humanity widely began industrially burning coal, oil and gas, which emit carbon dioxide — the greenhouse gas largely responsible for climate change.
“Annual global mean near-surface temperatures during 2026-2030 are predicted to range between 1.3 and 1.9 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 average,” the WMO update said.
The WMO said there was a 91pc chance that global average temperatures will temporarily exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline for at least one year between 2026 and 2030.
Arctic heat warning
The 1.5 degrees Celsius barrier is expected to be broken with increasing frequency.
The 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius limits in the Paris accords refer to sustained long-term warming — typically over 20 years — so temporary breaches do not necessarily mean the long-term goal is out of reach.
Last year was one of the three warmest years on record, with the globally averaged near-surface temperature estimated at more than 1.43 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 baseline.
The report was produced by Britain’s Met Office and the WMO’s lead centre for annual to decadal climate prediction.
Published in Dawn, May 30th, 2026