KARACHI: A surplus of $1.07 billion in March pushed the current account to the positive side, belying speculations of a massive deficit in the wake of the Gulf standoff.
The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) data showed that the country posted a current account surplus of $8m for the July-March FY26 period, driven by strong performance in March. The country had seen a surplus of $1.27bn in March 2025.
However, this was the first quarter to end with a surplus this fiscal year. The first quarter, July-September of FY26, recorded a deficit of $737m, and October-December witnessed a deficit of $624m.
The third quarter, Jan-March, saw a significant surplus of $1.369bn, bringing the overall current account into the positive.
$1.07bn surplus reverses trend
Despite the Gulf standoff, remittances have not seen any significant drop so far. Pakistan expects to receive about $40bn in FY26; so far, 53pc of remittances received in 9MFY26 have originated from the Gulf region.
Repayment shock
Pakistan recently paid about $1.3bn against the maturity of Eurobonds, while another repayment of $3.5bn will be made in the UAE.
This sudden repayment could be a shock to the country, as it has been struggling to bolster its foreign exchange reserves.
It is expected that Pakistan will also receive oil on deferred payment, thereby saving precious foreign exchange.
Researchers and market experts believe that the current fiscal year will end with a deficit, but not to the extent predicted earlier.
A Fitch Ratings report said the C/A is expected to return to a small deficit of 1.1pc in FY26 from a rare surplus of 0.5pc in FY25.
“Pakistan’s FX policy continues to exhibit rigidities in our view despite a push towards currency liberalisation in 2023, and the rupee has appreciated by 30pc in real effective terms from its early 2023 trough, likely contributing to large merchandise trade deficits,” said the report.
Published in Dawn, April 17th, 2026