Peace dividends for Pakistan could include clarity on the fate of the multibillion-dollar Reko Diq mining project in Balochistan, adjacent to Iran’s Sistan province, along a roughly 1,000-kilometre border. If stakeholders succeed in securing an Islamabad accord, the outcome the world urgently needs, perhaps Barrick Gold, the project’s operator, may conclude its security review sooner and proceed with the planned capital investment in line with the original timeline.
Despite Barrick Gold signalling a slowdown pending the completion of its security review, now to be finalised in 2027, hierarchy in Islamabad remains confident that an end to hostilities and the resumption of normal trade flows will restore investor confidence, keeping the project on track for its planned production start in 2028.
“Give us two weeks. By the end of April, we expect to respond to all your queries in detail. For now, we can say the project remains intact and is progressing at a normal pace. The joint venture, Reko Diq Mining Company [RDMC], operates under defined governance protocols, and its board has not approved any change to the planned timeline. The project is targeting production in 2028,” an informed source in Islamabad said, responding to reports that Barrick Gold plans to withhold further investment until next year.
“There are multiple complexities, and it would not be appropriate to comment offhand. Confidentiality must be respected, given the high stakes and the company’s accountability to its lending consortium. Officials involved are not authorised to disclose internal matters. That said, some confusion has arisen due to recent hostilities, trade disruptions and shipping constraints in the region, but this is expected to be resolved soon,” another senior official said privately while discussing media reports.
Sean Gordon Dalton of Brunswick Group, a global advisory firm which handles communications for Barrick Gold, shared a press statement issued on April 2 on the company’s website, adding: “Barrick has no additional comments at this time.”
‘Decisions involving billions of dollars are not typically triggered by short-term regional tensions’
In essence, the statement reiterated the company’s February 5, 2026, announcement of a comprehensive review of the Reko Diq project amid escalating security risks and incidents. While reaffirming its long-term commitment, Barrick said it would slow development and extend the review until mid-2027 to reassess security conditions, capital requirements, financing, scope, and timelines.
It reaffirmed that the project will remain under active management, with reduced capital spending, while Phase 1 approval would remain in place. The company reaffirmed its commitment to continue community investments, flagged potential cost increases and delays to the 2028 production target, and said further updates would follow consultations with joint venture partners and completion of the review.
Discussing the cost of the project the Barrick presser said: “It is anticipated that there could be significant increases to the previously disclosed total estimated capital budget and timeline for the project The previously disclosed total estimated capital cost of Phase 1 was between $5.6 billion and $6.0bn [100 per cent basis, exclusive of capitalisation of financing costs] and of Phase 2 was between $3.3bn and $3.6bn [100pc basis, exclusive of capitalisation of financing costs], with first production targeted by the end of 2028.”
Barrick Gold holds a 50pc stake in RDMC, with management rights over the project that could become one of the world’s largest gold and copper mines. The Balochistan government owns 25pc, while the rest is split among three state-owned enterprises: Pakistan Petroleum Ltd, Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd, and Government Holding Private Ltd.
Pakistani board members of RDMC in Islamabad and Quetta declined to comment on Barrick Gold’s decision, citing the sensitivity of the situation and the government’s current focus on facilitating peace talks.
Executives from other private mining firms, however, expressed disappointment and frustration. “I don’t think Barrick is legally entitled to unilaterally announce a delay in planned investment and a slowdown in mine development without prior approval of the RDMC board. They may have acted more cautiously had Pakistani private partners been involved. The government ecosystem is less equipped to handle such situations, which are relatively common in joint ventures,” said a senior mining executive anonymously.
“Pakistan’s track record in handling business disputes with foreign companies does not inspire confidence. Babus, [bureaucrats] often lack skin in the game and tend to follow processes rather than adopt a pragmatic, outcome-driven approach needed to effectively defend national interests. In contrast, the private sector operates on survival instincts and is typically more proactive in anticipating and countering adverse moves by partners or competitors,” another expert said, referring to cases Pakistan has lost in international dispute forums that resulted in heavy penalties. He was not optimistic about any near-term reversal of the mining giant’s decision.
Younus Dagha, former federal secretary and Chairman of the Policy Research and Advisory Council at the Karachi Chamber of Commerce and Industry, believes factors beyond security may be at play. “Mining is inherently high-risk, and the security environment was broadly similar when Barrick Gold re-entered Reko Diq in March 2022. The decision to defer investment appears driven less by security and more by a reprioritisation of capital towards projects in Nevada, USA and Zambia. Decisions involving billions of dollars are not typically triggered by short-term regional tensions,” he said.
It may also be relevant to note the leadership transition at Barrick Gold. Former CEO Mark Bristow was widely seen as more passionate about Reko Diq than the current leadership under Mark Hill.
Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, April 13th, 2026