ISLAMABAD: The government anticipates no shortage of fertilisers for current Rabi and forthcoming Kharif crops despite the fact that the escalation of conflict in Iran and the Middle East has sharply increased risks to global energy, fertiliser and agrifood systems, according to the Ministry of National Food Security and Research.
Pakistan’s fertiliser sector demonstrates strong supply-demand alignment, with production meeting 90 to 95 per cent of total urea demand and imports bridging the remaining gap, the ministry claims, adding that growth in fertiliser consumption of 2pc to 5pc annually reflects increasing agricultural productivity.
A situation report, prepared by the ministry, says with stock buffers ranging between 5 to 10pc of seasonal demand, both Rabi 2025-26 and Kharif 2026 are expected to remain free of shortages. However, continued gas supply of 700 to 800 million cubic feet a day (MMCFD) will remain critical to sustaining this stability, the report says.
Quoting latest data on fertilisers, the ministry says overall, the fertiliser data reflects a stable, growing, and well-managed fertiliser ecosystem supporting agricultural economy.
Surplus stocks likely to ensure price stability, according to Ministry of National Food Security and Research
The data shows urea availability during the current Rabi season exceeded 3.5m tons against demand of about 3.3m tons, resulting in a surplus of 150,000 to 200,000 tons. Similarly, availability of DAP remained above 700,000 tons against the demand of around 650,000 tons.
For Kharif 2026, the projected urea availability is around 3 to 3.2m tons against expected demand of 2.9 to 3m tons, whereas DAP availability is estimated at 750,000 to 800,000 tons against demand of about 700,000 tons, ensuring a comfortable buffer of 50,000 to 100,000 tons, the ministry says.
The ministry says the domestic urea prices remain stable at around Rs3,700 to Rs4,000 per 50kg bag, compared to international prices exceeding Rs5,500 to Rs6,000 per bag. DAP prices domestically range between Rs11,500 and Rs12,500 per bag, while international equivalents exceed Rs14,000.
The report says Pakistan’s annual urea production capacity stands at around 7m tons. Major producers include Fauji Fertiliser Company (over 2.5m tons capacity), Engro Fertilisers (2.3m tons), Fatima Fertiliser (700,000-800,000 tons), and Fauji Fertiliser Bin Qasim (DAP capacity around 650,000 tons). The sector consumes nearly 700-800MMCFD of natural gas.
Around 60 to 65pc production is dependent on SNGPL-supplied gas, while the remainder operates on dedicated or diverted gas sources. Even when one to two plants temporarily shut down, the remaining capacity ensures production above 85 to 90pc of national demand.
Over the last five years, urea consumption has grown from 6m tons to nearly 6.8 to 7.0m tons, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 2 to 3pc. DAP consumption has increased from about 1.1m tons to nearly 1.4m tons, indicating a CAGR of 4 to 5pc.
Annual urea demand ranges between 6.5m and 7.0m tons, while DAP demand fluctuates between 1.2m and 1.5m tons. During Rabi, urea consumption accounts for nearly 55 to 60pc of total annual usage due to wheat requirements, whereas Kharif sees increased DAP demand, accounting for nearly 60pc of its annual consumption.
Pakistan cultivates 22-23m hectares annually, divided into two major seasons. During Rabi, wheat alone occupies about 9m hectares, while gram and oilseeds cover another 2 to 3m hectares. In Kharif, rice is grown on roughly 3m hectares, cotton on 2 to 2.5m hectares, and sugarcane on over 1.2m hectares.
Published in Dawn, March 23rd, 2026