What next after Iran?
WITH the start of the Israel-US war on Iran, marked by missiles strikes on various targets in Tehran as well as other urban centres, the attempt to reshape the region is underway. It may be several days before it is evident if the ‘regime change’ objective of this war has been achieved and how the Islamic Republic has fared in what it says is an existential fight.
When US ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee told interviewer Tucker Carlson that Israel had the right to take over vast swaths of the Middle East on biblical grounds, a horrified Muslim world, particularly the Arab Gulf States, protested.
Huckabee’s boss, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, may have counselled American officials not to say things that complicate matters and cause problems for the Trump administration’s policies and relationships in the region, but the cat had been let out of the bag. This statement came against the backdrop of an unprecedented US military build-up in the region.
Huckabee’s words need not materialise in physical terms. It is abundantly clear that an Israeli ‘takeover of the Middle East’ and, frankly, beyond, is visualised so that it is surrounded by compliant, friendly regimes with none having the military means to defy the apartheid state and question its occupation of Palestine and the genocide of the Palestinians.
The Israel-US attack on Iran has absolutely nothing to do with Iran’s nuclear programme.
It is early days yet and the ultimate result of this war will hinge on two facts. How much pain, if any, Iran can inflict on the US, Israel and their Gulf allies and how long do the Iranians have the means and the will to stretch the fight in the face of the immense military might of the US, which is acting as a proxy of the apartheid state.
If weeks turn into months and, somehow, the Iranian government is still standing its ground and able to retaliate with its own missile barrages then perhaps the Greater Israel dream may turn into a nightmare. The MAGA split over the US administration’s role as an Israeli proxy will deepen if American assets are hit and personnel suffer casualties. In such an event, pressure will mount on Trump to stop.
In the haze of war, there will obviously be more questions than answers to start with. The one clear element is that the Israel-US attack on Iran has absolutely nothing to do with Iran’s nuclear programme and its supposed march towards the acquisition of a nuclear weapon. By tearing up an earlier agreement to cap Tehran’s uranium enrichment in his first term, and twice attacking Tehran when the US was in the midst of negotiations to reach an agreement to limit its enrichment to verifiable civilian use levels, President Donald Trump has indicated what his real agenda is.
It is ‘regime change’ and the ‘annihilation’ of Iran’s missile manufacturing and launch capabilities and the destruction of its navy, Trump said, leading a defence expert to say on an Australian TV channel: he is merely mouthing Israel’s words. Nothing more, nothing less.
That was an accurate description. The US ‘red lines’ have shifted many times, depending on what Israel’s psychopathic leader has demanded. The missile programme and the dissociation of Iran from its allies (referred to as proxies) in the region were not US ‘red lines’. The only clearly articulated issue was Iran’s nuclear programme. That is no more. The power of the apartheid state and its billionaire backers, who fund many US politicians and gave Trump’s campaign a quarter of a billion dollars, seem to have rendered the US no more than a proxy.
Iran handled the 12-day war last year quite well. It was able to absorb the decapitation strikes by the Zionist apartheid state, which took out the cream of its military leadership and many nuclear and missile scientists, to retaliate with deadly missile strikes against Tel Aviv and other targets such as oil facilities in the port of Haifa, causing fear and anxiety. Can it absorb a similar decapitation attack now?
However, the difference between then and now is the massive US build-up, which is said to involve a third of its military assets and is acting as a veritable arm of the Israeli military. The US spends over a trillion dollars a year on its military. One will have to see how much stomach the US has for a long fight in case Iran is able to dig deep and withstand the Israel-US assault.
In planning for this war, great emphasis would have been laid on countering Iran’s missiles and suppressing the latter’s radar capacity to render it defenceless. Both these elements will be tested over the coming days as will Iran’s preparations, because it knew this day would be upon it soon.
The strategists and planners in Saudi Arabia, and even as far as Pakistan, will be keeping a close eye on how this war proceeds. So far Saudi Arabia has refused to join the Abraham Accords and linked it to a clear pathway to a separate homeland for the Palestinians.
Perhaps, upset over this stance, Benjamin Netanyahu has announced the pursuit of an alliance with some Gulf states (not Saudi Arabia), African nations and India. During his visit to Israel this week, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s announcement to bolster Afghanistan’s security, was more than a hint at this new alliance’s goals.
Pakistan will need to quickly protect its nuclear and missile assets as it faces a two-front threat now from this alliance. It would be wrong to be alarmist but Islamabad will have to be watchful as the situation is evolving at a dizzying pace.
Much will depend on the shape the current Middle East conflict takes in the days ahead and the outcome. Iran may well be the last man standing in the face of Israel’s hegemony in the region in tandem with its allies such as India. Pakistan may need to look at closer defence and economic ties with both China and Russia to counter that threat.
The writer is a former editor of Dawn.
Published in Dawn, March 1st, 2026