PARIS: After 126 matches, 426 goals, five hat-tricks and 28 red cards the Champions League group phase reaches its head-spinning climax on Wednesday with 30 of the 36 clubs still with all to play for on the final night of action across Europe.
Arsenal, the only team with a 100% record, and Bayern Munich cannot finish outside the top eight and are therefore automatically through to the last 16 with holders Paris St Germain, Real Madrid and Liverpool among the clubs battling for direct passage.
The bottom four — Kairat Almaty, Villarreal, Slavia Prague and Eintracht Frankfurt — are all eliminated, while 13 clubs are assured of at least a playoff spot. A further 17 sides will be competing for the remaining places with all 18 games kicking off at the same time Wednesday.
The top eight receive a bye into the last 16 while the next 16 teams enter Friday’s draw for the play-offs, although PSG demonstrated last season that is no obstacle to lifting the trophy.
But the scenarios are complex as some teams try to avoid the jeopardy of the playoffs by clinching a top-eight spot and others desperately try to earn themselves a lifeline by avoiding finishing below the elimination trap door of 24th.
Arsenal could become the first team to win all eight games since the league phase was introduced last season. They host Kairat, who are bottom of the table with just a single point.
Bayern’s lone defeat in Europe came at Arsenal in November. Vincent Kompany’s side go to PSV Eindhoven in their final fixture.
Six more automatic spots are available on the final night with Real, Liverpool, PSG, Tottenham Hotspur, Newcastle United and Chelsea all with their top-eight destiny firmly in their own hands.
Real, record 15-time winners of the competition, will wrap up a last-16 berth with victory away to Jose Mourinho’s Benfica. Liverpool will join them if they beat Qarabag at Anfield, while Tottenham know victory at Eintracht Frankfurt will allow them to also bypass the play-offs despite their domestic struggles.
The standout clash of the night sees sixth-placed PSG host Newcastle, who are seventh, with both teams on 13 points and with identical goal differences.
Whoever wins goes through while the loser would probably fall into the playoffs. A draw would leave both sides sweating.
“This is a competition that we clearly like, which is a positive thing. Of course our aim is to finish in the top eight, and to beat a very good Newcastle team who have a different style, brave and physical,” PSG coach Luis Enrique told reporters on the eve of the match in the French capital.
Eighth-placed Chelsea (13 points) would probably go through with victory at a Napoli side fighting for survival, although they could still drop down on goal difference with several clubs also on 13 points just below the line.
DROPPING POINTS
With one or both of PSG and Newcastle definitely dropping points, Barcelona, Sporting Lisbon, Manchester City, Atletico Madrid and Atalanta, who all have 13 points, go into the final night with a top-eight finish in sight.
A handsome victory for Barca at home to Copenhagen would probably be enough but a narrow win could leave them vulnerable on goal difference, though Sporting finish with a tough test at Athletic Bilbao who are scrapping for a playoff spot.
“We have to respect Copenhagen,” Barca manager Hansi Flick said on Tuesday. “The most important thing is that we do our job and play at our best. It won’t be an easy match. The goal is to finish in the top eight.”
City must beat visitors Galatasaray and hope for the best to avoid a playoff, where their hopes ended last season, while a win for the Turkish side guarantees a playoff place.
A City victory could mean a remarkable six English teams finishing in the top eight.
“I prefer to have more [points] but it is what we deserve,” City manager Pep Guardiola, whose team are fighting for four trophies, on Tuesday. “We need to focus and try to win our game then see what position we finish.”
Atletico could also get into the top eight with a big margin of victory at home to Norway’s Bodo/Glimt, while Atalanta would need to pile up the goals at Belgian team Union St Gilloise and hope for slip-ups elsewhere to sneak in.
While Inter Milan, who are 14th after having lost three matches in a row, and 15th-placed Juventus (both on 12 points) are assured of playoff spots, they will want to guarantee a seeding by finishing between ninth and 16th.
Last season’s finalists Inter finish at 16th-placed Borussia Dortmund (11 points) while Juve travel to Monaco.
“We want to win and see what comes out in the end,” Dortmund coach Niko Kovac said on Tuesday. “Inter have a goal as well and they can more easily reach the last eight with a win.”
Azerbaijan’s Qarabag are on track to reach the knockouts for the first time after a last-gasp win over Eintracht last week.
Olympique de Marseille, Bayer Leverkusen, Monaco, PSV, Bilbao and Olympiacos round out the top 24 as it stands, but there are seven clubs beneath them who could force their way back into contention with Marseille’s clash at Club Brugge, who must win to avoid elimination, likely to be one of several tense clashes.
‘ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM’
Italian champions Napoli are the most notable team at risk of missing out on the knockout phase. They are 25th — behind Olympiacos by virtue of fewer goals scored.
“Tomorrow night the absolute maximum of our level of performance is going to be required,” Napoli midfielder Scott McTominay told reporters on Tuesday.
FC Copenhagen also have eight points but head to Barca for their final match.
Former European champions Benfica and Ajax Amsterdam find themselves in the last-chance saloon with elimination looming. The same is true for Bodo/Glimt, Pafos and Union St Gilloise.
Benfica (29th) must defeat Real and hope for favourable results elsewhere, while four-time winners Ajax (32nd) must beat Olympiacos and then pray for a miracle.
Eliminated debutants Kairat and Villarreal have lost six of seven matches. Slavia are also yet to win, while Eintracht sacked coach Dino Toppmoeller earlier this month after a poor run of results both in Germany and Europe.
Published in Dawn, January 28th, 2026