Uraan hyperbole
OUR autocratic setup recently launched with much glee an economic vision evocatively named Uraan. Its name invokes the ‘take-off’ stage in the now-discredited 1950s modernisation theory that says that all states go through the same development stages.
Key figures on both sides of the coin of this hybrid setup said, after the notification for chief of defence forces post finally came out, that we are now poised for uraan. It is fair to ask how the changed circumstances will cause economic uraan.
Many reputed minds rightly say that Uraan lays out grandiose targets without a credible pathway. Even more basically, this set-up isn’t even following it at all while its actual policies may lead us to a false and short uraan that ends in a big crash. Progress depends on the combined effects of economic, political, social, security and external policies. Our policies in these areas are risky and short-sighted and their combined, mutually reinforcing effect will hugely undercut broader national security.
This isn’t odd when those with no expertise in these areas dominate while the docile other side is inept and unfairly elected. With both pilots unsuited, the uraan can only end in a crash.
Industrialisation is low among our priorities though we need it badly.
Economically, industrialisation is low among its priorities though we need it badly. The main focus is on areas such as mining, crypto, corporate farming and remittances. But these may further impede industrialisation if their inflows raise the exchange rate too much to harm industrial exports. Politically, the focus is on crushing with a cudgel all critical state and societal institutions and opposition groups that could restrain the executive.
Externally, more reliable ties with China are cooling while risky ties with an unreliable US led by a doubly unreliable Trump are on the rise for crypto, mining and security issues. We have signed a defence pact with the Saudis, but details and actual action remain invisible months later. We may even send troops to the Gaza quagmire as part of rising US ties. Such external policies will increase security risks which are already mismanaged.
In Balochistan, there is no attempt to address the root causes that ignite insurgency or engage less intractable insurgents. Things are made worse by imposing a questionable regime again and crushing even peaceful groups like BYC and jailing Mahrang Baloch. In the former tribal areas, the resolve to crush the banned TTP is right but the use of indiscriminate force that harms civilians too — a failure to win the trust of locals — and cross-border attacks on Afghanistan are doubtful. Socially, top regime figures continue to use religious rhetoric to frame our external foes. The TLP has been dubiously banned but there is no attempt to arrest societal extremism.
While the policies in each area are risky enough on their own, their truly scary impact only emerges clearly when one sees how their interlinkages mutually reinforce other risks to create a cauldron of multifaceted risks that may push us towards greater turbulence. The plans on mining are the most open to question, linked with all policy domains. A rise in mineral exports without major industrialisation may raise the rupee value to undercut industrial exports.
Balanced regional progress is a tricky art that eludes our rulers. Industrial jobs will decrease in Karachi and upper Punjab while dirtier, riskier and cheaper mining jobs will rise in Balochistan. Would the laid-off wor-kers take up such jobs gi-ven the risks migrants face even now in Balochistan? Who will reap mining benefits given the dodgy mining law passed in Balochistan? US mining links will add more risk. With avenues for peaceful talks nixed by autocracy, all this may only increase violent means.
A crash hurts all states but healthy ones recover fast. But we have grown sicker for long and so an early recovery is unlikely. We will also see much bigger demographic, ecological, social and external threats in coming decades than past ones.
Politics is the avenue to tackle all other problems but our autocratic politics creates rather than resolves them.
To escape huge strife by our centennial year, we need ongoing democracy till then. But instead, we are now caught in a web of hybrid autocracy. If it doesn’t end soon, it may create serious problems with regard to the viability of the state.
The writer has a PhD degree in political economy from the University of California, Berkeley, and 25 years of grassroots to senior-level experiences across 50 countries.
Published in Dawn, December 23rd, 2025