KARACHI: After three consecutive weekly losses, the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) clawed its way back into positive territory, buoyed by political clarity and renewed investor confidence, despite the deteriorating law-and-order situation.
The market opened the week on a positive note. However, two terrorist attacks in Islamabad and Wana the next day shattered investors’ confidence on Tuesday, which triggered panic-selling, inflicting a staggering loss of 3,667.90 points or 2.27 per cent, which dragged the index below 158,000 points. However, in the subsequent session, investors indulged in value hunting as bulls staged a mild recovery in the last two sessions; the market witnessed a massive recovery, pushing the index above the 161,000-point barrier.
The passage of the much-watched 27th Constitutional Amendment and confirmation that the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Executive Board will meet next month to approve a $1.2 billion disbursement helped steady nerves and spark buying across key sectors.
Pakistan and the IMF reached a Staff-Level Agreement on Oct 14 for the second review of the $7bn Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the first review of the $1.2bn Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). The board is expected to authorise $1bn under the EFF and $200m under the RSF on Dec 8, with inflows likely to land the following day.
KSE index stages a sharp recovery on political clarity, IMF announcement
Topline Securities said the benchmark KSE-100 index gained 1.26pc week-on-week, primarily driven by the return of mutual fund buying. Average daily volumes rose to 767 million shares, while traded value totalled Rs35.4bn.
Corporate and macro data also assisted the mood. Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA) reported October car sales at 17,333 units — up 32pc year-on-year and 1pc month-on-month — taking total sales in 4MFY26 to 59,600 units, a hefty 46pc annual rise. In the week’s T-bill auction, the government raised Rs478bn against a target of Rs550bn, with yields holding broadly steady.
Arif Habib Ltd (AHL) noted that the market’s upward run continued despite regional tensions, driven by sector-specific triggers. Fertiliser stocks surged after reports that the Economic Coordination Committee had approved shifting plants from pricey RLNG to Mari’s indigenous gas, a move expected to ease subsidy strain and stabilise urea prices. Cement shares rallied as investors bet on fresh merger-and-acquisition prospects.
As a result, the benchmark KSE 100 index closed the week at 161,935.19 points, up 2,342.29 points.
In a separate T-bill auction, total participation surged to Rs1,621.7bn, with the government raising Rs492.9bn. Yields eased slightly on shorter tenors: the one-month and three-month maturities slipped 1.2bps and 0.6bps respectively, while the 6-month inched up 0.1bps and the 12-month remained unchanged.
Roshan Digital Account (RDA) inflows reached $11.313bn by the end of October. Of the total, $1.903bn has been repatriated and $7.263bn utilised locally, leaving net repatriable liabilities at $2.148bn.
The broader energy landscape also showed movement. Net-metering’s share in total generation rose 57bps year-on-year in September, underscoring continued solar adoption and reduced reliance on the national grid.
On the external front, the State Bank of Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves edged up by $21.8m to $14.5bn. The rupee held firm, closing at Rs280.723 against the dollar.
AHL said key data releases, including current account and FDI numbers, would guide market direction in the coming week. Any easing of geopolitical tensions could act as a major catalyst.
The brokerage noted the KSE-100 is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.18x versus its 15-year average of 8.59x, with an estimated dividend yield of about 6pc — broadly in line with historical norms.
AKD Securities added that the approval of the 27th Amendment by both houses effectively calmed political uncertainty, injecting 3,751 points into the index over the last two trading sessions alone. This optimism offset early-week jitters triggered by tensions with Afghanistan, where peace talks ended without resolution and Kabul announced it would suspend trade with and through Pakistan.
Macroeconomic indicators also lent support. Workers’ remittances rose 12pc year-on-year to $3.4bn in October, while RDA inflows for the month stood at $250m, up 4.6pc month-on-month. AKD expects the bullish momentum to carry into next week, backed by anticipation of IMF Board approval, minimal flood impact, improved credit ratings and easing global yields.
These factors, the brokerage said, should shore up investor sentiment and potentially draw fresh foreign portfolio and direct investment.
Published in Dawn, November 16th, 2025