Dissecting disaster
THE first phase of the monsoon cycle has left death and destruction in the country. According to data from the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), 289 people lost their lives and 698 were injured in five weeks. Punjab was the worst-hit province with 158 deaths, followed by KP where 64 people died.
Additionally, the rains and floods damaged 1,580 houses, with Gilgit-Baltistan registering a third of the total. GB endured ferocious flash floods triggered by landslides and mudslides. Several unprepared tourists were dragged away from gushing flows generated by intense rainfall at Babusar Top, Chilas and the adjoining areas. Scores of tourists remained stranded as the fragile access roads of Fairy Meadows, Ghanche and Diamir were clogged by heavy landslides.
Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Chakwal, Lahore and Jhelum also witnessed intense showers that took lives and damaged infrastructure. The floodplains of the Indus and Chenab rivers in the outh Punjab areas of Layyah and Taunsa received low to medium floods, which submerged villages and crops. Meanwhile, Sindh received medium floods of up to 450,000 cusecs at Guddu for a few days. After several months of a parched bed, the Indus delta greeted a healthy flow of over 100,000 cusecs in July, which was welcomed by the impoverished fishing community.
Although tragic losses in GB, Punjab and KP are squarely attributed to climate change, a deeper diagnosis unveils the human dimension behind the catastrophe. Punjab’s rainfall data identifies 13 spells of over 50mm of precipitation at six locations. Most of these spells remained below 100mm. These intense rain showers were not abnormally high as no spell exceeded 200mm. Yet the scale of death and damage has been disproportionately high.
There’s a human dimension to the flood disasters.
A careful analysis of the data unmasks the other factors responsible. NDMA data reveals that 55 per cent of the deaths occurred due to the collapse of houses while 17.5pc were caused by drowning. Housing infrastructure, particularly in the poor settlements, is too infirm to withstand intense climate shocks. According to Census 2023’s housing statistics, about 29pc of homes in the rural areas are kachha and hence less durable. Housing infrastructure in rural and shanty dwellings is extremely vulnerable. This observation was proved during the 2022 floods when more than two million houses were damaged in rural Sindh. In fact, decrepit housing infrastructure has been the root cause of most deaths caused by rain-related destruction this year.
Similarly, a sizeable number of deaths due to drowning indicates flawed tourism management, official negligence and lax law enforcement. The appalling scenes of 18 people being swept away by the raging torrents of the Swat River exposed a medley of failures. In fact, it was an utter governance disaster. Reckless gravel and sand mining in its bed has converted the river into a death trap. Deep ditches are dug to capture gravel and sand, which is extracted after the flood recedes. Thousands of tons of sand and gravel are meant to satiate the endless appetite of the construction industry in the area. Deep and wide ditches are now ubiquitous in the Swat River. Rampant encroachment by hotels and restaurants has also distorted the riverine regime.
All this continues unchecked in spite of the laws, including the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa River Protection Act, 2017, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Public Property (Removal of Encroachment) Act, 2021, and the Mining of Minor Minerals from River Bed Rules, 2022.
Islamabad, the seat of power, and its twin Rawalpindi are not immune to this menace either. A posh housing society, DHA in Islamabad, witnessed the horrible death of a father and daughter, whose car was swept into a raging nullah. Houses are built precariously close to rain drains without a barrier wall or covered surface. Encroachments in nullahs, in violation of the building laws, are not uncommon.
In fact, encroachment is a prevalent feature in all the provinces. Illegal construction, badly designed bridges and roads, intrusive cropping and private embankments have tampered with river regimes and thus converted normal flows into devastating deluges.
Provinces have several laws to manage the floodplains. Punjab has legislated the Punjab Flood Management Act, 2016, while Sindh has enacted the Sindh Public Property (Removal of Encroachment) Act, 2010. In addition to the laws, there are explicit court orders to remove encroachments in order to unblock the natural waterways.
All these laws adequately equip provincial governments with the powers to stop the obliteration of the floodplains. Yet the laws are worthless without empowered institutions and the will to ensure enforcement.
The writer is a civil society professional.
Published in Dawn, August 11th, 2025