FORMER KGB agent Yuri Bezmenov described the four-step process of ideological subversion, which, by his account, the Soviet Union used during the Cold War to weaken and destabilise target nations. To comprehend how ideological subversion might operate in a given situation, including the one we are facing in today’s Pakistan, one needs to be aware of how this happens.
The first of the four stages is demoralisation. It may take several years to complete this lengthy process as it entails undermining a society’s moral and ethical standards in order to make it more vulnerable to manipulation.
Demoralisation in Pakistan might take the form of a steady decline in traditional values and cultural norms due to the propagation of Western tendencies. The growing number of foreign media and entertainment platforms that challenge, or run counter to traditional values may fall under this category.
The goal of the destabilisation stage is to bring about social, political and economic chaos. This also takes a few years to happen on the ground. Targeting a nation’s institutions, it makes them ineffective, leading to economic destruction based on political instability. Supporting separatist or extremist movements, encouraging graft and corruption within the government machinery, and encouraging economic instability through financial mani- pulation are all examples of estabi-lisation in Pakistan.
A significant national crisis, such as a revolution or war, characterises the third stage. The intention is to cause conditions that seriously disrupt the ability of the government to function, leading to a power vacuum. An armed conflict between rival ethnic or religious groups in Pakistan could set off a crisis that may result in widespread violence and unrest within the political system.
The final stage in the plan is called normalisation in which, following the crisis, a radical party seeks to install a new, more charitable regime or ideology in the target nation, replacing the existing system with one that serves predefined objectives. In Pakistan, normalisation could mean supporting a political or religious movement that shares the radical ideology in order to gain power and reshape the nation’s policies, and to convince the supporters that everything is being done to better serve their the interests of the people.
Although Bezmenov’s model is frequently mentioned in discussions about ideological subversion, it is important to keep in mind the fact that executing the strtategy has its own challenges and risks. There are complex dynamics involved, and oversimplifying the discourse is not going to help anyone.
Real-world circumstances are rarely easily categorised into stages because geopolitical events and the influence of various actors are both extremely context-dependent.
Having said that, it will do us no harm to see if the larger strategy is in play.
Afzaal Ahmed Narejo
Islamabad
Published in Dawn, October 20th, 2023