WASHINGTON, Nov 16: The World Bank predicted on Wednesday that a three per cent increase in the work force in high-income countries by 2025 could raise global real income by 0.6 per cent or $356 billion a year.
Such an increase in migrant stock would be in line with the migration trend observed during the past three decades, says the bank’s Global Economic Prospects report for 2006.
“The relative gains are much higher for developing-country households than rich-country households, rivalling potential gains from global reform of merchandise trade,” the authors conclude, with $162 billion going to new migrants, $143 billion to people living in developing countries, and $51 billion to people living in high-income countries.
Officially recorded remittances worldwide are estimated to exceed $232 billion in 2005.
The GEP authors suggest that remittances sent through informal channels could add at least 50 percent to the official estimate, making remittances the largest source of external capital in many developing countries.