ALTHOUGH we are still counting our dead and the damage that the recent devastating earthquake caused to Pakistan’s northern areas, the tragedy will go down in history as the worst disaster ever to hit Pakistan besides, of course the hurricane that hit the former eastern wing of the country in 1970.
As we mourn our dead and reach out to the survivors, the consoling part has been the way Pakistanis everywhere responded to the call for sharing the grief of their brethren – a fact acknowledged by the world that also responded to this call with no less vigour.
Relief effort began a little late but it had more to do with the administration’s inability to grasp the magnitude of calamity quickly enough, the spread of the affected areas, and Pakistan’s capacity to face up to disasters of this magnitude, much less with a lack of commitment.
In a large measure, the government response suffered from the huge backlog left behind by previous governments in beefing up the capabilities of disaster recovery agencies.
A heart rending revelation is the fact that the quake wiped out one generation of the inhabitants of Azad Kashmir. In a matter of seconds, schools, colleges, hospitals and offices – all public buildings – were reduced to heaps of rubble burying underneath hundreds of innocent human beings.
While the intensity of the quake was undoubtedly enormous, the tragedy has exposed criminal deficiencies in the construction of these buildings and glaring gaps in the calibre and integrity of the construction contractors and building control authorities.
For the present we are in a state of shock, and immediate concerns are quite rightly focused on relief efforts but comprehensive and well thought out planning for short and long-term rehabilitation of the victims should not be postponed.
The projected 05-06 GDP growth rate (already watered down twice) is bound to shrink further as resources are diverted to the much-needed rescue efforts. It would shrink more as the government undertakes a massive rehabilitation effort.
From the way help has poured in, especially from foreign governments and international aid agencies, it appears that we may not be grossly short of resources. Besides the fact that the US and EU and Japan have promised to enhance their contribution to the relief effort, in its first call to member states for relief aid the UN sought a sum of $272 million. This figure will go up once total damaged is assessed, but what would encourage the world to provide help on a sustained basis (which, most certainly will be required) would be the logic in our short and long-term rehabilitation plans.
The big concern remains the fact that, with ill-conceived rehabilitation effort, we may end up wasting resources without rehabilitating the victims to help them to stand on their own feet once again. The lingering effect of this error could jeopardize the already fragile social equilibrium and impede economic growth for years to come.
Our track record in planning leaves much to be desired because official planners rarely sought advice from those for whose sake plans were being made. It is time they took into account the people’s view in launching this effort.
It is no longer in doubt that the northern areas lie on a dangerous seismic fault line, which raises several issue that need to be debated beginning with the logic of small population chunks living on dozens of mountaintops that are inaccessible by motorized vehicles; if that must go on, there is the need to build all-weather roads to access them.
Second, considering the fact majority of the people living in these areas may not migrate to regions with lower calamity vulnerability, what could be the least dangerous construction design and the construction materials that should be used in these areas.
Most of the cities and towns in the affected areas have been virtually wiped out. A well thought out strategy must be evolved about the future profile of residential and commercial areas in these cities and towns that have the capacity to with stand disasters a little longer and also leave sufficient open space in every locality for setting up rescue and relief facilities, whenever the occasion arises.
The haphazard manner, in which the overly-politicized, tactless local governments allowed the now-destroyed localities to develop, was absolutely shocking.
How overoptimistic can be the hope to rely for rescue being launched even from Islamabad has amply been proved by recent events. The vulnerability of these areas to earthquakes, mud slides caused by heavy rains (both being experienced now), and virtual halt to all activity after heavy snowfall (experienced every winter) calls for setting up in these areas several disaster recovery centres with purpose-oriented rescue equipment.
A plus point of this strategy is the creation of employment opportunities in these low economic activity areas.
This brings into focus the low economic activity in these areas, which is the principal reason why family heads go out to work in far-flung cities in Punjab and Sindh, principally Karachi. This was a major factor in vocal demands not being made for provision of civic facilities, which resulted in these areas remaining economically backward and logistically inaccessible. Being low generators of revenue these areas were neglected by economic planners, and budget allocations for their development remained far too little compared to the need.
Unless businesses based on locally available inputs and raw materials are set up in these areas, they will continue to be neglected by budget-makers and slowly their populations will migrate to the over-populated big cities. This will be a major failure of the economic managers.
Due to historic reasons, the quake affected areas don’t have large reserves of skilled workforce but with the right incentives, setting up of small environment-friendly industries in these areas, is certainly possible. Tourism is a business that could take off very well.
To make these areas attractive for investment, the government must spend a lot in improving land and air access to these areas. Obviously, it calls for public-private cooperation so that while the government expends precious resources on improving land and air access to these areas, the private sector steps forward to invest in business activities.
Surely, there is potential for business activities in these areas but for discovering them both government and the business community need a different mindset, open dialogue with people of these areas, and research.
Without doubt, this exercise poses a challenge but from the indescribable outpouring of grief and sympathy of Pakistanis everywhere it is unmistakeably clear that if sponsors can come up with plausible business propositions the nation will respond to their call.
There will be many who would come forward as donors (not financiers with profit expectations) to provide the initial funding for setting up these enterprises in the hope that those enterprises will help the quake victims learn to stand on their feet once again. It is a cause well worth pursuing. All that the planners need is, an open mind, capacity for patient listening and accepting all that sounds viable and workable.