GRODNO (Belarus): The two armed policemen were relaxed. They had thrown their caps on nearby chairs and chatted loudly, ignoring the crackle from a walkie-talkie. But their position right inside the headquarters of a powerful Polish association in this city near Belarus’ border with Poland put them on the frontline of a diplomatic battle that has poisoned relations between the neighbours.

Belarus’ President Alexander Lukashenko — described by US officials as ‘Europe’s last dictator’ — has accused European Union member Poland of using Belarus’ 400,000-strong Polish minority to plot an uprising against him.

Some Western analysts believe Belarus could become the next former Soviet republic to see mass protests like those which helped unseat governments in Ukraine, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan.

Although a weak, divided opposition and the lack of a strong national identity makes upheaval less likely anytime soon, Lukashenko sees the well-organized Poles as a force to be contained.

Riot police stormed the headquarters of the Union of Poles in Grodno last month, evicted the leaders and reinstated the previous, more compliant team.

The Union, which has about 20,000 members, has long complained of government persecution. Analysts say the crackdown is an attempt to exert control over one of the few important non-governmental organizations in this country of 10 million.

In Grodno, a town of narrow streets, neat 19th century houses and Polish churches, one in five people is an ethnic Pole.

Tadeusz Kruchkowski, the reinstated head of the Union of Poles, says the dispute is a political one.

“I don’t know where this conflict is being provoked, in Poland or beyond,” he said. “But it is immoral and criminal to use a minority group to force regime change ... I hope reason will prevail. What’s the alternative — civil war?”

Some academics say the president is using the row to bolster his position. Belarus holds a presidential election next year and Lukashenko, who came to power in 1994, is eligible to run again after a referendum allowed him to change the constitution.

“Lukashenko is looking for an enemy. A Soviet-type regime needs an enemy,” Sokrat Janowicz, a Belarussian writer living in Poland, told the daily Rzeczpospolita.

“First it was the Belarussian opposition, but they proved too weak. Poles fit this role perfectly.”

Poland, long uneasy about Lukashenko’s policies and outraged at the treatment of its ethnic kin, withdrew its ambassador after the Union was stormed. Later, Belarus refused entry to a group of Polish parliamentarians.

The incidents have focused new attention on civic rights under Lukashenko, accused by Western countries of crushing rivals, muzzling the press and rigging elections.

“The reason behind the conflict is an attempt by authorities to bring the Union strictly under their control,” said Anzelika Borys, the ousted leader of the association.

Mindful of the delicate position of its kin, Poland used to lobby for dialogue with Belarus and against sanctions. But it has changed tactics.

“The position of the Polish minority could act as a catalyst for the West, particularly Poland, to taking firmer action for democratic reform in Belarus,” said analyst Yaroslav Romanchuk.

The fate of Belarus’ ethnic Poles has become a major campaigning point for Polish parties ahead of parliamentary and presidential elections later this year.

“We view with alarm the recent events in Belarus,” outgoing Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski said earlier this month.

“We demand that Poles, like people of all nationalities, have the right to organize freely and elect their own representatives,” he said.

Community leaders say their situation was even worse during the Soviet era or when much of Poland was absorbed into Tsarist Russia in the late 18th century. Repression then was routine.

“As recently as 1999, I found elderly people were unwilling to talk about their ethnic background,” said Grodno university professor Alexander Smolyanchuk.

“People have long memories of times when being Polish was a good reason to be arrested. And a good reason not to tell someone you don’t know that you happen to be Polish.”

Under the Tsars, Poles earned a reputation as troublemakers — an image reinforced by the reputations of people like Tadeusz Kosciuszko, a leading figure in the American revolution.

The suspicions persisted. Poles were deported en masse from Belarus — and Ukraine — at the end of the Second World War.

“Traditionally, from the time of the Russian empire, the ruling classes saw Poles as a fifth column,” said Kruchkowski. —Reuters