BUJUMBURA: Burundi’s election of a president marks an important milestone on its long road out of war, but extreme poverty, lingering ethnic divisions and a still-active insurgency remain barriers to lasting peace.

Friday’s election of Pierre Nkurunziza, the leader of the former Hutu rebel Forces for the Defence of Democracy (FDD), was seen as a crowning moment for a peace plan signed in 2000, and the tiny central African nation’s relatively smooth progress an example of the continent working out its own problems.

But Nkurunziza, a 40-year-old political newcomer who will be expected to address a host of problems when he takes office next week, must persuade Burundians he is different from other leaders who promised much but never delivered, analysts say.

Chief among his tasks is to negotiate an end to sporadic violence by a small but determined Hutu rebel group without eroding his power base in the majority Hutu community.

“There is this opinion that says the war is over, but the war is not over. There are parts of the country where it is not over,” said Burundian analyst Willy Nindorera.

Nkurunziza is the second democratically chosen Hutu leader in Burundi’s history after Melchior Ndadaye, who was assassinated by Tutsi fanatics months after his 1993 election.

Ndadaye’s murder triggered a war pitting rebels of the Hutu majority against a Tutsi minority that had been politically dominant since independence from Belgium in 1962. The conflict helped destabilise much of central Africa and killed 300,000.

Nkurunziza wants to negotiate with the hardline Hutu Forces for National Liberation (FNL), the only rebels still fighting.

But if talks falter and hostilities intensify, the FNL may succeed in recruiting some support among former rebels of Nkurunziza’s FDD, many of whom are being demobilised with little of the money or jobs needed to tempt them into civilian life.

“If the government fails to solve all these problems, fails to meet people’s expectations, then the FNL could be a big group,” Nindorera told Reuters.

The FNL is not the only threat to security. Poverty and easy access to weapons have driven many soldiers, former fighters and police into violent crime, analysts say.

Nkurunziza has promised to deal harshly with criminals.

Another goal is to launch a truth and reconciliation process in a society traumatised by atrocities. The FDD’s challenge will be balancing justice with reconciliation and creating the impression that four decades of impunity have come to an end.

“Any party in Burundi that was part of the conflict has people that committed war crimes and atrocities,” said Jan Van Eck of South Africa’s Institute for Security Studies.

“The big challenge for Burundi is making a choice between how much justice you can have without defeating the purpose of reconciliation.”

“Will they be willing to put some of their own soldiers and commanders on trial in the next year? A lot of Tutsis will be watching,” said Jason Stearns, an analyst with the International Crisis Group think-tank.

One way to ease the public thirst for justice is to boost a moribund economy through redevelopment and rebuilding.

“If people are given jobs, then they will not be so impatient about impunity,” said Terence Nahimana, a peace activist and former Hutu politician.

Unlike post-apartheid South Africa, where the economy was strong when it underwent a truth and reconciliation process, many of the Tutsi elite stand to lose everything if their political power is taken away, Nahimana said.—Reuters