SINGAPORE: US President George Bush came to office pledging to do “whatever it takes” to defend democratic ally Taiwan. On Tuesday, he issued the strongest warning ever by a US president to Taiwan not to force his hand.
In doing so, he signalled not only displeasure with Taiwan’s moves towards independence but also a shift to emphasize better ties with Beijing in a world in which he needs friends in the war on terror and where trade revolves increasingly around China’s giant manufacturing machine.
“This does not come out of the blue,” Su Chi, former chairman of Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council and now a professor at Tamkang University outside Taipei, said of Bush’s warning.
“This is the culmination of months of dissatisfaction with Taiwan, and this dissatisfaction plus Beijing’s pressure led up to this point,” said Su. He was speaking hours after Bush, sitting with visiting Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, voiced his opposition to any move by Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian to change the island’s status quo as formally part of China.
His statement, welcomed in China even though Bush included Beijing in his admonition, marked a nuanced hardening of the usual US line that Washington does “not support” independence for Taiwan, which Beijing regards as a breakaway province to be returned one day to the fold.
Bush is clearly vexed by Chen — as demonstrated by this shift in policy emphasis only three years after he pledged to do whatever it took to protect the island from Chinese aggression.
Much has changed in those three years.
Not only is the United States eager to build alliances with like-minded states opposed to terror after the Sept 11, 2001, attacks on New York and Washington, but, with a US presidential election only 11 months away, China’s burgeoning economic might and trade clout are issues of domestic concern.
“It is an investment in a long-term cooperative relationship with China that should bear fruit in managing regional issues like North Korea,” said Susan Shirk, professor at the University of California at San Diego and deputy assistant secretary of state under president Bill Clinton.
With such foreign policy problems as the Iraq war, the Afghan conflict and the North Korea nuclear crisis on his hands, Bush is hardly eager to see a flare-up in the Taiwan Strait that could eventually require him to fulfil his pledge, analysts said.
NO BLANK CHEQUES: “I don’t believe that it’s in our interests to give Taiwan a blank cheque and let them decide for us whether or not we end up in a fight, a military conflict, in Asia,” Shirk said.
Sparking the crisis is Chen’s determination to hold a referendum that he says shies away from seeking endorsement of his desire for independence, but which China sees as a cover for just such a move.
“Chen is playing the China card; his only card is the China card,” said Su, referring to the tough re-election fight he faces next March. “But how far will he go at the expense of relations with the US?”
Su believed Chen would press ahead with a referendum to coincide with the presidential election in March, even at the expense of relations with his number one ally and biggest arms supplier.
“That would run a risk for him and for the country because Taiwan rarely makes both the United States and China mad at the same time,” Su said.
“Would that embolden the PRC (People’s Republic of China) to do something, to take stronger measures because the US would not be there to stop it? It’s truly dangerous,” he added.
Chen repeated his commitment a day after Bush’s warning.
Diplomatically isolated Taiwan stands to lose much.
“Official statements will need to be backed up by actions, such as adjustments in the pace and scope in US defence cooperation that can send a clear political message that there will be costs to ignoring stated US policy,” David G. Brown, associate director of Asian Studies at Johns Hopkins University in Washington, wrote in a report this week.
PLAYING TO A HOME GALLERY: As for China, Wen will return home in triumph with the statement of opposition that Beijing so desired, his domestic standing enhanced.
“This will play well domestically since it shows China has the influence to pull the US on its side rhetorically,” said Jonathan Unger, head of the Contemporary China Centre at the Australian National University.
China may be expected to offer something in return.
“It’s certainly conceivable that there are some deliverables out of this meeting from the US perspective,” Shirk said.
“But I think it’s entirely possible that there was no specific quid pro quo, and instead this is aimed at protecting our own security interests by signalling Taiwan very strongly not to declare independence by referendum,” she said.
China also wins because it will no longer feel under pressure to respond to Chen with the sabre-rattling it has used in past such crises.
“I don’t think the mainland would use very strong methods to deal with a defensive referendum,” said Shi Yinhong, director of the Centre for American Studies at Beijing’s Renmin University.—Reuters