WASHINGTON, Nov 29: After a blood-letting that cost 2.8 million jobs in just over three years, US factory payrolls are expected to soon start inching higher, economists believe. But many manufacturing jobs may never come back.

“The declines are just about over,” said UBS economist Jim O’Sullivan. He predicted the first rise in factory employment since July 2000 could come as early as next week, when November payrolls are released, or perhaps one month later.

While employment outside of manufacturing has begun to grow after a long jobless recovery from the recession, factory jobs have remained elusive — particularly in rust-belt states which could be key to President George W. Bush in the 2004 election.

But the pace of factory layoffs has finally begun to ease. During the slump, job cuts averaged 134,000 a month. Since August, that has dropped to just 30,000, and October’s 24,000 decline was the smallest in nearly three years.

Factory data also suggest jobs are poised to expand, with the Institute for Supply Management’s employment index hitting 47.7 in October — inches from the break-even mark of 47.8. O’Sullivan said payrolls tend to rise when the index is above 47.8 and fall when it is below.

Economists agree most of the factory jobs lost during and since the 2001 recession are gone for good and warn that no one should expect a huge rebound in employment even when the layoffs finally come to an end.—Reuters