NEW DELHI, Oct 28: India maintained on Tuesday that the United States was eying a positive response from Islamabad to New Delhi’s peace proposals but senior Indian and American analysts saw little genuine hope in New Delhi’s move for a significant thaw.
Pakistani diplomats in New Delhi on their part pointed out that the reported expectations of a positive response from Islamabad expressed by US Secretary of State Colin Powell in a telephone call to Indian Foreign Minister Yashwant Sinha did not amount to any pressure on Pakistan.
Colin Powell, according to an Indian foreign ministry spokesman, had called Mr Sinha, currently in Belgium, and said that Washington hoped Pakistan will respond “positively” to the Indian proposals.
“The Americans are aware of our concerns,” said a diplomat on condition of anonymity. “There is little in these proposals to engage them or us beyond the elementary courtesies of diplomacy.”
“In themselves, none of the 12 Indian proposals is to be faulted,” said Mani Shankar Aiyer, a Congress party MP and columnist. But some of these moves, “such as again playing cricket and other sport, the restoration of air links, and the resumption of the Samjhota Express, are merely an attempt at reviving what we had so foolishly cancelled ourselves.”
Mr Aiyer, in an article in the Indian Express titled ‘The Thirteenth Step’ said there was a need to go beyond the 12 facile proposals and to work for a dialogue with Pakistan.
In Chennai, America’s renowned South Asian expert Prof Stephen Cohen expressed the view that though welcome, India’s move is unlikely to go very far.
“It won’t go very far because sooner or later something will disrupt the relationship,” Prof Cohen told The Hindu newspaper.
“It is still fragile. It could be a terrorist attack. It could be some insult that somebody issues to the other side and I think that the dialogue is at a very tenuous phase. So I would assume that the dialogue will collapse as the previous dialogues have,” Prof Cohen said.
He said the silver lining was India’s offer to take steps towards the movement of people. “That is not superficial. That would change attitudes and opinions both here and in Pakistan. That is a requirement for a serious dialogue on Kashmir,” he said.
The timing of the offer of talks — just as elections are due in five states — left room for many theories.
“I have been trying to think through why the (Indian) government made this announcement now,” Prof Cohen said. “But it could be that the administration here decided that this was the time to put Pakistan on the defensive. I think they could have made these proposals a couple of months ago. Or it could have been connected to the Chinese policy [since Sino-Indian ties are looking up.
“Maybe they thought they would be able to put more pressure on Pakistan. There are lots of such theories. But no matter which theory you use, it is welcome. The Pakistanis want a dialogue on Kashmir, but I do not think India is ready. It is part of a containment strategy.”
He said the improvement in Sino-Indian ties would have a direct bearing on the regional equations as China was a party to the Kashmir dispute.