LAHORE, Sept 3: Dr Mubashir Hasan, an expert on irrigation and provincial president of the PPP-SB, visualises a political disaster in the country if the government goes ahead with the Kalabagh dam and Greater Thal canal projects at a time when other provinces are opposing these projects tooth and nail.

“It is a recipe for political disaster, most unfortunate, but very real. The project should not be launched, no matter how useful or beneficial it is for the proponents, as other provinces don’t like it at all,” said Dr Hasan while talking to Dawn on Wednesday about the situation the country might have to face because of the controversial dam.

About the Thal canal, Dr Hasan said the federal government should not have started the work on it unless a project using an identical amount of water was prepared and launched in Sindh. Similar projects using a lesser amount of water should also have been prepared and launched in the Frontier province and Balochistan, he said.

The PPP(SB) leader raised some questions about the Thal canal. “Where will the water for the canal come from? If it will be flood surplus, as unofficially claimed, other provinces also have a legitimate claim on it.”

Dr Hasan said that if there was any surplus beyond the established usage, it had to be shared by the provinces according to the 1991 Accord. “The reality is that there cannot be any surplus unless new storage facilities are constructed.”

In his opinion the technical case for building a dam is not weak. “But it is a case for virtual suicide if it is not backed by political consensus. Let the provinces have political and administrative autonomy and they will approve not one but many dams to augment the irrigation supplies and restore the glory of Indus.”

Dr Hasan warned that the federal government would commit a political blunder if it went ahead with new water projects without forging a consensus among all the four provinces. “The attempts are destined to fail with grave political repercussions.”

He said the objections against the Kalabagh dam and the Thal canal projects were not merely technical or economic. “They are reflective of a deep resentment among the people of smaller provinces against the centralized, arrogant and self-righteous rule of Islamabad, Rawalpindi and Karachi over a period of five decades.”

The denial of provincial autonomy was the root cause, Dr Hasan said, adding that political leadership of the smaller provinces was in a position to muster strong popular support against implementation of these projects.

The federal government, he said, should not overlook the political danger inherent in irrigation projects for economic gains.

He said the design and the standard operating procedures of the dam were still a secret which the government should make public along with the cost estimates.

He recalled that a few years ago, Tarbela Dam could not be filled to capacity because of a shortage of water. He said the government should convince the people of Sindh about the facts and figures with regard to the availability of water for Kalabagh dam. He said the Sindhi people should be told in what months would this water be stored, how much would be left for the areas above and below Kotri, what provisions have been made to compensate the losses to be caused by the change in regime of the river. The government should also explain where would the water of Kalabagh lake be used, by whom and in what months.