WASHINGTON: Population growth rates in developed and developing countries are becoming increasingly skewed, posing challenges to governments worldwide, according to the 2003 World Population Data Sheet released on Tuesday.
Published by the Washington-based Population Reference Bureau (PRB), the survey estimates a 193 percent population increase in Central Africa — the fastest-growing region in the first half of the 21st century — compared to a mere 6 percent gain in Northern Europe and a population decline in the rest of Europe.
The total fertility rate (TFR) — the average number of children a woman has — in less developed countries is double the rate in developed countries. The TFR in more developed countries is a mere 1.5, compared with 3.1 in less developed countries — 3.5, if China’s large statistical effect is removed.
The stark contrast in growth between the more developed and less developed countries marks a trend that has been going on for some time and continues to accelerate.
Today, 97 percent of the world’s population growth is in developing countries. Developed countries, which held about one- third of the global population in 1950, now make up for less than one-fifth of the total, and the overall trend suggests an annually falling percentage.
With the exception of the United States, which has a relatively high birth rate of 2.0 for a developed country, as well as steady immigration, TFR numbers for most of the other industrialised countries are far below 2.0, with an average low of 1.2 in Eastern Europe.
High fertility rates are exclusively found in the poorest nations. In countries like Mali or Somalia, TFR rates are 7.0 and higher, peaking in Niger with 8.0.
“Have and have-not nations live in totally different worlds,” noted PRB demographer Carl Haub, the data sheet’s author, “but they are all shaped by their rate of growth. What constitutes balanced population growth remains for each nation to decide and is a question of endless debate.”
“The speed of population growth inevitably affects markets, capital accumulation, labour availability, job creation, immigration, migration, health care, retirement benefits, education, and a number of other national considerations,” Haub said at the release of the Population Data Sheet. “Governments will have to deal with the impact on the environment, food supplies and human health.”
For countries like Germany, with a graying population and negative growth rate, questions of how to secure its labour force and benefits for the retired have to be addressed. This creates a dilemma many other European countries are facing as well: maintain the basic ethnic stock of the nation or diversify and let in immigrants to boost the workforce.
At the other end of the spectrum, countries like India and Thailand have reacted to their high population growth by devising new policies limiting family size — with varied success.
Initiatives in Thailand, for example, stand in sharp contrast to those in many sub-Saharan African nations, where positive results remain elusive.
In Western Asia, whose population is projected to more than double by 2050, going from 204 million to 418 million, the Palestine Territory’s high rate of natural increase (3.5 percent) will make the area more populous than Israel by around 2050 — a significant change in demographics that will also have an impact on Palestinian-Israeli relations.
These skewed growth rates are also creating a mismatch in supply and demand of human resources. While a country like Italy has a surplus of teachers and schools, sub-Saharan African countries like Niger have a high proportion of uneducated children and a limited educational infrastructure.
Determining factors for population growth remains problematic. While economic trends play a role in industrialised countries, they can be disregarded when trying to explain growth rates in developing countries, explained Haub.
“In rural countries like India, tradition plays a large role. There, the idea that you have to have sons to support yourselves is still predominant,” he added.
Cultural factors are also relevant when trying to explain differences in family size between Northern European countries like Norway and Southern European countries like Spain or Italy. In contrast to Catholic Italy, it is far more accepted in Scandinavia to have children outside marriage.
Moreover, government policies that “reward” families with more children also have an impact on population growth rates, as is the case in Sweden.
The 2003 World Population Data Sheet lists demographic data and estimates for 208 countries and major regions of the world. The data sheet provides information on the overall population, rate of natural increase, infant mortality rate, total fertility rate, and percent of the population with HIV/AIDS, to name just a few categories.—Dawn/InterPress News Service.