ISLAMABAD: If Pakistan and India want to avoid clashes, their armies should maintain a certain distance from their respective borders.

This was stated in a report titled ‘India and Pakistan: The Opportunity Cost of Conflict’ launched at the Centre for International Strategic Studies (CISS) on Thursday.

The report has been authored by two international relation experts – Shuja Nawaz from Pakistan and Mohan Guruswamy from India.

The report said interaction between the two militaries would not only increase confidence between them but also enable the two forces to share their experience on combating non-state actors.

The report further said Kashmir was a major dispute between the two countries and it could become a basis for a nuclear war.

It said India had a similar territorial conflict with China which led to wars in 1962 and 1967. Now both countries have agreed to sort out the issue through negotiations, and have been focusing on increasing economic ties.

“Trade between India and China is more than $72 billion which may increase to $100 billon by 2015,” the report said.

“A similar agreement can be made between Pakistan and India, if both the countries seriously proceed. Business relations make nations more accommodating. Trade between India and Pakistan can increase by 1.5 per cent of the GDP. India’s growing demand for fruit and vegetables will give Pakistani farmers a much larger market,” says the report.

“An atmosphere of cooperation will also enable both countries to jointly develop hydroelectric power in the Indus basin. It is estimated that as much as 8,000MW can be generated by jointly managing the basin and by selling power to each other.”

The report added: “Another major area of cooperation between the two countries can be in developing an oil and gas grid that connects the exporters of hydrocarbons like Iran, Middle East and Central Asia with the markets of Pakistan and India. It will be feasible for both the countries to build joint pipelines for petroleum products.”

Speaking through Skype, the co-author of the report, Mohan Guruswamy, said both India and Pakistan should start trade which was the best way to resolve issues.

“Pakistan is afraid of India because India is bigger than Pakistan. Same was the case with India because China is bigger than India but now India and China are going to do trade of $100 billion. Pakistan and India should concentrate on improving economic relations,” he said.

Mr Guruswamy said: “Narendra Modi’s stance was different regarding nuclear policy while he was contesting elections but after becoming prime minister, there is no change in state policies.”

Also speaking through Skype, Shuja Nawaz said: “Indian economy is currently seven times bigger than Pakistan and in 2050 it will be 16 times bigger than Pakistan’s economy. So the only solution is to concentrate on economy rather than on increasing defence budget.”

“India needs to generate 15 million jobs every year and Pakistan needs to generate three million jobs every year, so they should only concentrate on economic empowerment,” he said.

Executive Director CISS Ali Sarwar Naqvi said both countries should find ways to work together.

“Unfortunately in the past dialogues between Pakistan and India were interrupted due to various reasons. Both countries should start uninterruptible process of dialogue,” he said.

Retired Lt-Gen Asad Durrani said the government had to analyse many aspects. Even a price has to be paid for peace.

“The government cannot start any process which changes the status quo. A decision to start bus service on both sides of Kashmir seemed good but it also faced many problems,” he said.

Journalist Shahidur Rehman said water was one of the biggest issues between India and Pakistan. Both countries were on the verge of war when Indus Water Treaty was signed in 1960.

“India has once again started building dams on rivers which are for Pakistan. Both countries have to sit again and resolve all issues,” he added.

Research analyst at CISS Syed Mohammad Ali said history of South Asia says that opportunities were wasted because of tensions between India and Pakistan.

“There is a need to develop a framework to address security concerns. No doubt water is an important issue between both countries,” he added.

Published in Dawn, June 20th, 2014