Suddenly, crores are being tossed around where lakhs were used not so long ago. After a few months' absence from the scene, I have returned to find that property has replaced politics as the favourite subject for after-dinner conversation.

Travelling in and around Islamabad and Lahore, I was shocked by the steep rise in real estate prices. Karachi, too, has experienced a boom. Many friends are now talking about buying, selling and building. Entirely sensible people seem to be infected with this fever.

But more interestingly, the attitude of people towards our defence forces appears to have undergone a sea-change, partly as a result of this property boom. Many people I met in Punjab, ranging from taxi drivers to businessmen, talked of the vast profits military officers have made in the last few months.

Whether true or false, this is a perception I encountered several times in a short period. And given the fact that the bulk of the army comes from Punjab, this is a significant change in attitude. Traditionally, the province has been steadfast in its support of the military.

The stand off between local fishermen and the Rangers over fishing rights in Badin is another example of the military's appetite for control over national resources. And the long- festering and violent dispute between the army and local tenants over a large tract of farmland around Okara is yet another reminder of the growing distance between the military and the people.

Neither of these incidents is new. But what has changed is the public reaction. After all, when have people in Lahore bothered about the fishing community in Badin? For the first time, many ordinary citizens appear to be questioning the military's right to get whatever land they want to.

An interesting theory I heard about the resilience of Lahore's property boom was based on a major speculator's view that prices would stay high because of Indian interest. Many Indians retain an enormous emotional attachment to Lahore, and apparently, some of them would be happy to own property there. It seems that several benami or anonymous transactions have already taken place.

The military is the biggest single land owner in and around Lahore, and has developed housing schemes extending close to the border. The biggest single group to benefit from the property boom are serving and retired military officers. But booms can only be sustained in peacetime. Talk of war sends the markets tumbling overnight, and billions in paper profits are wiped out.

Apart from real estate, the army also owns and controls the largest industrial empire in the country through its Fauji Foundation. This welfare organization has expanded steadily over the years and employs hundreds of retired officers.

It has done so well because it has no problems in getting approvals and licences of all kinds, and does not have to pay kickbacks as the rest of the private sector does.

Thus, it becomes clear that the military's corporate interests lie in peace with India, rather than a state of confrontation. Earlier, conventional wisdom held that only a situation of no-war, no-peace suited the army as a settlement of outstanding disputes would lead to a reduction in our defence budget.

This thesis no longer holds good because in the current 'war on terror', there can be no question of trimming our defence forces. For the first time, the GHQ can contemplate peace with India without facing a demand for reduced defence spending.

And in this changed scenario, our national interests become realigned with the army's. The bottom line is that peace suits all groups except, perhaps, the right-wing religious parties and their jihadi extensions.

Earlier, the military's need to protect its corporate interests came at the cost of national interests which lay in increasing trade with India while reining in the jihadis.

This could not be done as these elements were being used by the establishment to further its own agenda. Now, with the on- going realignment in the military's perceptions, a crucial component in the effort to make peace has fallen into place.

Earlier analyses of Musharraf's true intentions and motives of wanting peace with India had examined the more obvious factors. For starters, there was the constant pressure from the Bush administration that did not want to be distracted in its efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan by a sideshow between India and Pakistan.

Then there was the growing realization that we simply could not afford to maintain a credible conventional defence posture in the face of the rapid strides being made by the Indian economy.

But what has really tipped the balance is the knowledge of the direct financial loss that would be incurred by tens of thousands of serving and retired officers across the country, specially in Punjab, in case of renewed tension on the border. While this view might strike some as being overly cynical, in reality it is a very healthy and welcome attitude.

According to received wisdom, no democracy attacks another. Perhaps a case can be made for the theory which holds that no prosperous middle class attacks another. For some time now, businessmen in India have been exerting quiet pressure on their government to reduce tension on the border.

In the last few months that have seen better relations, a number of business delegations have travelled back and forth, examining the prospects of trade and industry. There is talk of all kinds of deals. Once peace does break out, the markets will surge on both sides of the border.

I have long maintained that Pakistan can only become a normal country once it sheds its fixation with Kashmir. This single event would reduce the appeal of the religious militants, even if it doesn't immediately reduce defence spending. But if the prospect of war recedes, the stranglehold the military currently has on the polity of Pakistan would gradually loosen.

Perhaps all this is wishful thinking, and the army will maintain its grip. Maybe, like Burma's generals, ours will cling to power indefinitely. But experience shows us that prosperity follows democracy, and if our military elite pays its usual attention to the bottom line, there is hope for all of us yet.