Fickle fortune

Published October 2, 2004

As mentioned last week, in this space, so many people wish to know their future. Over the centuries, thousands of charlatans and self-proclaimed pirs, seers and faqirs have professed to foretell what tomorrow will bring.

Our politicians are particularly prone to guidance from the spirits. Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto both sought reassurance about their political longevity from dubious holy men. The latter is reputed to be particularly superstitious, and is said to visit soothsayers in different countries.

In fact, ours is a society where the spirit world intersects the real one all the time. Witness the crowds thronging to the tombs of saints across the country, begging the incumbents for amulets, lucky charms and prayers.

Thousands make a comfortable living by fooling the gullible. Even highly educated, intelligent and seemingly rational people take major decisions only after consulting their favourite pirs. A few experiences have left this writer, too, struggling to find a rational explanation.

A childhood friend, Javed Mashedi, is somebody who has spent his lifetime in the study of astrology and numerology, poring over ancient books on the subject, and travelling to learn from well-known gurus. Despite his strictly amateur status, he has been consulted by famous people over the years.

Anyhow, on that particular evening, the conversation turned to the abysmal state of the nation, as it so often does. To remind readers, that was when Pakistan was in the doghouse in the aftermath of Kargil.

Nawaz Sharif seemed to be in an impregnable position. His dreaded and deeply divisive 15th amendment that would make Sharia the law of the land hung over the nation like the sword of Damocles.

That was when the dollar traded at 65 rupees, thanks to his seizure of foreign exchange accounts, and the stock market was perpetually in the doldrums. And with his huge majority in Parliament, his firm grip on the levers of power, and his contempt for democracy, it seemed he would be around forever.

So when Javed announced that his calculations showed that Pakistan was due soon for ten very good years, we expressed our astonishment and disbelief. What remotely conceivable combination of factors could possibly lead to such an illogical conclusion? Javed had no rational explanation, and we soon forgot about the prediction in the dreary days ahead.

But a few weeks later, Nawaz Sharif overplayed his hand and was duly turfed out by General Musharraf. Predictably, this coup triggered a number of sanctions and global disapproval. Due to the liberal noises he made, as well as the fact that the threat of the 15th amendment had now receded, Musharraf was cautiously welcomed domestically.

However, 9/11 catapulted him and Pakistan into the international limelight. Sanctions were lifted; some loans and interest written off; and foreign exchange reserves soon shot up to 10 billion dollars.

From being a pariah state, Pakistan is playing host to a succession of dignitaries from the major capitals of the world. And for the first time in years, we are engaged in a serious dialogue with India over our differences.

Despite these measurable improvements, there are many who will say that they are dwarfed by the damage Musharraf has done to democratic institutions. The army's hold over executive powers has marginalized the political process.

And the stage-managed elections held two years ago have produced a system where the prime minister, parliament and the cabinet are all subservient to the army chief. Nevertheless, everything is relative.

Imagine the situation if Nawaz Sharif had still been in power. By now, he would have controlled the Senate as well as the National Assembly, and the 15th amendment would have been rubber-stamped without any opposition.

The army would have been reluctant in cooperating with him over the smart about-face Musharraf actually executed by withdrawing support from the Taliban overnight. And he would certainly not have been allowed the flexibility Musharraf is now showing in his meetings with the Indian leadership. We all remember our military high command's refusal to welcome the Indian prime minister when he visited Lahore at Nawaz Sharif's invitation.

The sad fact is that after repeated bouts of army intervention, Pakistan has deviated so far from democratic norms that we take the irrelevance of politicians for granted.

Another fact is that despite his uniform, Musharraf has done better as chief executive than we had expected. His political manoeuvrings apart, he has steered the country through some difficult straits. He might not have delivered on many of his promises to make Pakistan a more tolerant society, but at least he still continues to provide a measure of stability.

Granted, his continued presence at the helm is not the perfect solution to Pakistan's many problems. But his absence would be felt acutely were he to disappear tomorrow. And while nobody is indispensable, on balance, he is doing a better job than any of the current contenders for his position.

Returning to Javed Mashedi's prediction, it remains a mystery how he could have possibly foreseen events five years ago. True, he had no idea about any of the details. But despite the visible deterioration in just about every aspect of national life, his calculations showed him that things were about to change for the better.

Clearly, there are little-understood forces that defy scientific analysis. But, it seems, the whole business of foretelling the future is pretty hit-or-miss. If a soothsayer makes a number of predictions, the law of averages will ensure that a certain percentage turn out to be reasonably accurate. So to base one's decisions on how the dice fall is to surrender control of one's destiny to fortune. And Lady Luck, as we know, is a fickle mistress.