This dispatch from the frontlines--I write from the electoral trenches of Chakwal--is really meant for the benefit of three dear friends: Tariq Aziz, General Musharraf's principal secretary and the godfather of the King's Party or the Quisling League, Lt Gen Ehsan, head of ISI, and Maj Gen Talat Munir, head of the Intelligence Bureau.
The first remains a dear friend despite the company he keeps. When General Musharraf seized power three years ago I remember Tariq Aziz telling me that this military intervention was different from all previous ones because the helmsman, for once, was without ambition. Well, well. I wonder what Tariq's definition of ambition is now. The other two were with me at Kakul, both promising cadets marked for future promotion.
Because of the positions they hold, all three would be closely if not furiously scanning the weather clouds in order to divine the outcome of the October polls. For friendship's sake let me lighten their burden. They should take a sinner's word for it that their Q League is in serious trouble.
Only massive rigging can avert its predestined discomfiture. But massive rigging--of the kind we saw in the glorious referendum--is impossible. No one would stand for it: not the international community, not the people of Pakistan. Some jokes are difficult to sustain.
Look at the candidates the Q League is fielding: turncoats and fair-weather friends. Who's the Q candidate in Islamabad? No name sticks in the mind. Who's the party fielding in 'Pindi? Lacklustre comrades. In Lahore a former colleague of mine in the Punjab assembly has reportedly refused a Q ticket.
Sensible fellow to realize that it would have been a millstone round his neck. When this race began, a Q ticket appeared to be the surest guarantee of success. As electioneering sputters into life, it's hard to say how many hopefuls still cling to the same belief.
For this prognosis am I relying on intuition or empirical observation? For the last two weeks I have been sniffing the wind and testing the ground. All my experiments lead to one inescapable conclusion: no one is buying the confectionery of the Q League.
My heart goes out to the regime's political engineers. All their hard work seems to be coming to nothing. We have already seen the fiasco of the Jatoi-led National Alliance. Does it stand a hope in hell? Regarding Farooq Leghari, one look at him is enough to make one despair of the political process.
The only good thing about his Millat Party is the much-photographed face of its Islamabad activist, Ms Alia Malik. Why can't the other political parties recruit similarly bright-looking cadres? God knows Pakistani politics can do with a bit of touching up.
This is valuable political intelligence I am passing on. Now for a bit of advice: any more mucking with the election process will do no good. It won't alter the political landscape because that's not easily done. But it will further discredit the rule of the generals. Why go in for such a poor bargain?
The General has already ensured his own future by hacking away at that poor document, the Constitution, and by building protective dikes around his person. His Legal Framework Order, issued with no more effort than it takes to sign a piece of paper, remains a marvel of constitutional innovation.
All this having been achieved, what's the sense in playing any more games? Was this country created for the sake of the Chaudries of Gujrat? Is this what we as a nation have come to? In the quiet watches of the night Tariq Aziz must ask himself these questions.
None of this absolves the two major parties - the PML-N and the PPP - from their responsibilities. Between now and the last date for withdrawal of nomination papers they must get their act together. That is, if they are not to sit around for the next five years bemoaning their lost chances. General Musharraf's guiding principle is divide and rule. The only counter to this is 'unite and resist'.
The season of cutting separate deals with the military government is over. Or should be. For a long time to come this will be the last call for democracy. The importance of the moment should be realized. There's a need all round to have a sense of history. And a sense of occasion. Weak candidates must be shed so that in their own interests they can live and fight another day. Common sense dictates that only those candidates from the two major parties should be left in the field who have the better chance of knocking out the straw figures of the Sarkari League.
Take the case of Chakwal which I bring up only to drive my point home. The PPP candidate is Khurram Nawab, the son of a dear friend, Sardar Nawab Khan. A youthful figure with his future before him, he doesn't stand much of a chance in this campaign. A vote for him, therefore, will be a vote wasted. This is simple maths not rocket science. I hope someone in the PPP secretariat takes heed. And I hope Sardar Nawab Khan, for whom I have the greatest respect, doesn't mind this candid analysis.
Why is a united front at this juncture important? Not for the sake of winning or for the advantage of this or that party. This would be partisanship and not worth the effort invested in it. Larger issues are at stake here. The army has to be saved from itself which is only possible if there is a strong vote for democracy in this election.The army must return to its proper functions because its record over the last three years, especially its micro-involvement in political and administrative matters, has left its image tarnished. Can Pakistan afford this? Can the army afford this?
At any rate, Chakwal and Choa Saidan Shah (the resting place and shrine of the great Sakhi Saidan Shah) have a vested interest in the fair name of the army.
Half the army comes from this area. In the rugged and beautiful terrain of Wanhar, Kahoon and Jhanghar (what evocative names) lift a stone and you'll find a major, colonel, brigadier or general underneath. There's hardly a house in which there is not a serving or retired soldier, hawaldar or subedar.
The one thing that has repeatedly betrayed the professional standing of the army is authoritarianism. It follows that the army's best defence lies in democracy. It's no service to the country when democracy and the army are presented as counterpoints to each other.
What is Pakistan's foremost problem at the moment? The feeling of indispensability sweeping the Musharraf regime. After me, the deluge. What is Pakistan's foremost need? To convince Caesar that he is mortal. Who can perform this function? Only a parliament that doesn't dance to the ISI's tune, whose members do not take instructions from ISI brigadiers and major-generals. This election then is not about reviving the fallen fortunes of Ms Bhutto or the Sharifs. It is about restoring a balance in Pakistan's polity, a balance which currently has ceased to exist.
What checks and balances does Gen Musharraf talk about? His constitutional prescriptions have wrecked the very notion of check and balance. Imagine a play or a film in which there is one actor playing all the parts. This is what the military has done, hog all the roles.
We need to move towards a greater diversity, something only the coming election can deliver. That too if the yes men of the Q League - the army in whose recruitment Tariq Aziz has shown so much skill - get the drubbing their shoddy politics deserves.
Tailpiece: Some remarks in my column titled "What is blasphemy?" have earned the displeasure of one of the leading religious lights of this area, Hazrat Maulana Qazi Mazhar Hussain of Madni Jamia Masjid. It has been conveyed to me that those remarks can be interpreted as being in defence of the Ahmadi faith. Perish the thought.
I was not defending the Ahmadi faith as even a cursory reading of my column makes amply clear. I was merely pointing out the absurdity of some of General Zia's policies. The Hazrat Maulana's displeasure is all the more distressing for me because what little instruction into the reading of the Quran I have was acquired at his madrassa. Under strict instructions from my father, I used to attend religious classes there during the three months' winter break from Lawrence College.