The guessing game
AGAINST the backdrop of what has been going on in and around Pakistan’s tribal belt and in the capital itself in the last fortnight or so and the guessing game that ensued after the as yet officially unconfirmed meeting of Pervez Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto, the scenes at the policeman-turned-tycoon Rehman Malik’s residence off Edgware Road here did look incongruous, rather out of place.
Every time one went past the place one was struck by the milling crowd that seemingly was keeping a spirited vigil outside the apartment. Most had come all the way from Pakistan to canvass the PPP parliamentary board members’ meeting here since around July 15 to finalise party tickets for the forthcoming polls.
None in the crowd was found to be even thinking in terms of a postponement of the election, considering the increasing incidents of militancy in the country, and President Musharraf’s vanishing options. Most seemed to believe that elections would not be postponed even if talks between Benazir and Musharraf were to fail.
They all seemed more than sure not only that the election would be held in time come what may, but that the PPP would sweep them.
And to be sure, there was no break in the PPP’s parliamentary board meetings except on the day Ms Bhutto flew to Abu Dhabi to meet President General Pervez Musharraf. And since after her return she went back into the parliamentary board session as if nothing had happened and without even so much as a pause to ponder with her close confidantes about what was gained or lost in Abu Dhabi, it is perhaps safe to assume that a deal has finally been done and Ms Bhutto completed the ticket distribution process rather quickly, to perhaps have time enough on hand to plan for the long-awaited journey back home to become prime minister for the third time.
And by the way, the parliamentary board is believed to have given tickets to all the sitting PPP MNAs and MPAs. And new entrants are said to have been entertained in only those constituencies where the PPP does not have strong candidates or where the sitting members like Faisal Saleh Hayat had changed loyalties.
It is still not very clear what President Musharraf and Ms Bhutto were trying to achieve by turning their Abu Dhabi meeting into a guessing game. And since details of what happened at the meeting are still shrouded in mystery another guessing game of who won and who lost as a result is keeping the media and public at large engaged in a debate that seems to have no ending.
In the meanwhile, the ruling PML has perhaps come under extreme pressure. If things go the way that Benazir wants them to then the ruling party is most likely to simply disintegrate. And all those who had supported and gone along with Musharraf all these eight years would be looking around trying to find some honourable way to remain in politics.
But there are also those from both the ruling party as well as the PPP who believe that no deal has yet been struck or that a deal between the two is almost impossible, or still such a development would be bad for both. Benazir is insisting that Musharraf give up his army job before contesting his own elections.
Musharraf on his part is said to be adamant that PPP should first help him get elected and then he would take off his uniform. The PML stalwarts are said to be cautioning Musharraf against giving in to Benazir’s demand, telling him that she would do a Ghulam Ishaq Khan on him if he takes off his uniform before his election. And Benazir’s advisers, on the other hand, are said to be warning her that he would do an MMA on her by going back on the promise of taking off the uniform after getting elected.
Of course, if a deal is done between the two, both would lose a lot of face. The situation appears similar (not identical) to the one we had seen following the dismemberment of Pakistan in 1971. A defeated army wanting to be rescued from the wrath of the nation had gone to Z.A. Bhutto in Rome for help.
He obliged willingly and in the process became the Chief Martial Administrator (a stigma he could not wash off ever), and rehabilitated the army back to a position where it found itself strong enough within a few years to hang him. Today a down and out Musharraf is seen to have gone to Abu Dhabi seeking the help of ZAB’s daughter. And on the face of it, she seems to be willing to help. Our leaders, both military and civil, do not appear to be good at learning from history.
But then what would happen, if there is no deal and the talks between the two fail? Martial Law is one option that perhaps is not available to Musharraf because of so many internal and external factors. So what happens? That is perhaps what is called 64,000 dollar question. Perhaps even Musharraf would like to know the answer.
That the country has become ungovernable is too obvious for even a child. The army with all its fire power, manpower and extensive network finds its hands more than full handling the insurgency in Balochistan and the rebellion in the tribal belt and also in almost half of the settled areas in the NWFP. Interior Sindh is totally alienated. And Punjab is angry with the army as never before. The ruling PML being a party not anchored to any ideology or political programme, except the unabashed appetite of its members for power, is too feeble a political group to cope with the crises facing the country.
The MMA too has been rendered out, dated by the march of events. The PPP and the PML-N have roots in the masses, but the two are election parties. They on their own do not seem capable of countering the politics of Taliban which is fast catching the fancy of the teeming have- nots.
This brings us to the final and more valid question. Even if all the stakeholders --the ruling PML, the MMA, the PPP, the PML-N, the MQM and the army--were to join hands by some miracle, can they together put the country back on normal keel? Your guess is as good as mine.