Growth with equity

HAVING achieved an average economic growth rate of seven per cent over four successive years, the government is now targeting a 7.2 per cent GDP growth for fiscal year 2007-08. The track record raises hope that Pakistan has not only the potential but also the wherewithal to join the league of Asian countries with decades-long sustained growth — a trend that is becoming more global. But one cannot be sure that the growth strategy now being pursued, resulting in the worsening of major macroeconomic indicators, can really protect the economy from the long-term risks of a possible slowdown. As is evident from a significant gap this year between budgetary targets and the revised provisional estimates, particularly the receding growth of industrial production and exports, the future course of development seems to remain uncertain. Industrial growth is down to 6.8 per cent against the budget estimate of 11 per cent and large-scale manufacturing has recorded a growth of 8.8 per cent, falling significantly short of the 13 per cent target. Similarly, export earnings are now pitched at $17.2 billion this year against the original projection of $19.8 billion. Despite the rise in home remittances and foreign investment — which together account for about $11-12 billion — the record current account deficit is expected to rise to $7.1 billion, mainly because of a very high trade deficit of $9.9 billion.

The current account deficit can be financed in the short run from international capital inflows but, as rightly pointed by the State Bank of Pakistan, global capital “can be volatile and sensitive to a host of domestic and global factors (both economic [and] political)”. Before the economy suffers a setback, it is imperative to boost exports of merchandise beginning with the next budget, focusing on manufacturing and by taking steps to increase the dismally low rate of domestic savings. The savings rate has been eroded by persistent high inflation, currently estimated at 7.6 per cent as against the budgeted target of 6.5 per cent. With increasing interest rates and decreasing purchasing power, consumer financing by banks has dropped by a huge 42 per cent in nine months during the current fiscal year. The share of consumers, along with exports, in GDP growth is falling. But a positive development this year has been a robust growth in direct taxes, a trend that, if sustained, can ultimately help lessen the heavy burden of indirect taxes on poor consumers.

Going by the official pronouncements, next year’s budget holds out some promise for the common man. As indicated by the secretary-general of finance, the salaried class and the common people will get relief though increases in their pay and pensions. The long-delayed plans for low-income housing are to be initiated. The size of small loans, which have so far not gone towards the uplift of the poorest of the poor, will be increased. How much these provisions will benefit the common people will be known only after the budget has been announced. Unlike the past two to three years, the economic growth this year is more broad-based coming from all three sectors — industry, agriculture and services. It is a positive trend. But the worsening macroeconomic indicators and structural imbalances pose a daunting challenge to the policymakers. It is time to address issues relating to the fundamentals of the economy to manage sustainable growth with equity.

Bizarre plan for Iraq

AMERICAN Defence Secretary Robert Gates’ plan for a permanent US military presence in Iraq is both premature and incongruous with the existing conditions there. Moreover, it bears little relevance to the Korean and Japanese models that are meant to underpin such a security arrangement. The presence of American troops in the Far East was essentially to contain the communist threat. In Iraq, the situation is very different, with a far more explosive mix of anti-American feelings and sectarian animosities. Instead of planning to stay on in the beleaguered country, the US should now be seriously focusing on an exit strategy for its more than 160,000 troops stationed there. Despite the recent ‘surge’ in numbers, violence has not abated and May proved to be the third deadliest month in terms of American casualties since the invasion in 2003. This shows that the insurgents are stepping up the number of attacks to keep pace with the arrival of more troops, and have honed their guerrilla tactics to a point where even the most sophisticated weapons have not deterred them.

It is obvious that a sudden withdrawal of US-led forces could leave a dangerous void to be filled by all varieties of militants. This must not be allowed to happen as it would endanger the territorial integrity of Iraq which already seems headed towards a three-way split. To avoid such a possibility, the option of a UN peacekeeping force, consisting predominantly of the nationals of those countries that have maintained a neutral posture vis-à-vis Iraq, deserves serious consideration. One positive aspect of the current situation is the US recognition of the important role that Iran can play in defusing the crisis. If the recent meeting in the Iraqi capital between American and Iranian envoys is followed up, further discussions involving Washington, Tehran and Baghdad could result in a solution to the sectarian crisis. The US would be acting wisely in recognising the present reality and looking for pragmatic ways to restore peace in Iraq, instead of entertaining fanciful ideas that ignore the current situation in the Middle East.

Living with asthma

AN increase in pollution in the country has led to a rise in health problems and people are unaware of how to deal with them. This is true of asthma which, according to a recent news report, afflicts nearly 7.5 million people. And the number is likely to keep growing. In a detailed report on the disease in 2004, an international organisation estimated that there were about 300 million asthma patients around the world, adding that the burden of the disease was increasing on families, hospitals and governments. The most affected are children, with more and more of them suffering from asthma at a young age. This makes it imperative to make people aware of the disease and how best to treat it. Luckily asthma is a manageable problem provided people know how to take care of themselves. If symptoms are ignored, it can even be fatal. Prompt diagnosis is crucial as is medication to control it, since every patient has varying symptoms.

In a country like Pakistan, where access to basic healthcare facilities is poor, it is difficult to imagine how asthma patients are coping. People in rural and remote areas depend on quacks in the absence of healthcare centres and they do not

get the right treatment. Research conducted in 2003 showed that a staggering 90 per cent of asthma patients in the country wrongly believed that foods like fish or rice contributed to their condition. This only proves how unaware people are of the causes of asthma. It is important that the government work with healthcare organisations to spread awareness of this disease. Doctors too need to be trained on the advancements made in asthma treatment so that they can make their patients more aware of their condition.

Why’s Lebanon burning?

LEBANON is no stranger to conflicts. Especially those involving the Palestinians. But as Robert Fisk, offering another ringside view of another war in the Middle East, says, there is something really “obscene” about watching the ever suffering Palestinians get caught in another war that is not of their making.

Already, more than 100 people are dead, most of them Palestinians. Even visibly harmless, pregnant women with harassed children in tow negotiating their way out of the check posts that have come up around Nahr Al Bared are not spared. They are in the line of fire both from the Lebanese soldiers and Fatah Al Islam gunmen.

Thousands of Palestinians have escaped with only their clothes on their back. Hundreds of families have been torn apart as they ran for their lives once again in their eventful history.

The fact that most of these families are the survivors of the 1982 invasion by Israel and the subsequent Sabra and Shatila massacres by Ariel Sharon’s goons only underscores the never-ending tragedy that is the Palestinian existence. How long will the Palestinians have to pay for the crimes that they have not committed?

According to the UN, there are still nearly 8,000 Palestinian refugees trapped inside Nahr Al Bared that was originally home to nearly 40,000 of them, without food and war. Many of the Palestinians fled for safety after an informal ceasefire came into being. The Lebanese troops have resumed their attack on the Fatah Al Islam terrorists for inflicting this latest crisis. The Fatah al Islam of course refuses to surrender. The Arab League too has blasted the group as “terrorists” offering its full support to the Lebanese government.

One doesn’t know who the Fatah Al Islam are and what really is the agenda of these new “defenders” of Islam. They are said to be the remnants of a Palestinian fringe group. They are accused of being sponsored and manipulated by Damascus and Tehran.

Many others suggest that Fatah Al Islam are mere mercenaries who, unknown to them, could be part of a bigger plot to destablise Lebanon and ensnare the already bedevilled Middle East into another conflict. The fact that the US has lost no time in jumping into the fray by rushing military aid to the Fouad Siniora government gives credence to the second opinion.

Whatever the reality of this low-intensity conflict, in the end it is the Palestinians who are the real victims of this campaign. And the real architects of this conflict, as has been the case with most conflicts in the Middle East over the past half century, are the Israelis.

There are nearly 400,000 Palestinians living in Lebanon. It goes without saying that they had been driven into Lebanon, just as they had been driven elsewhere, because of the Israeli occupation of their land. And if the Palestinians continue to suffer even today it’s because of the Israeli occupation.

Many in the Lebanese media and establishment accuse the Palestinians of being responsible for all their woes, from the Israeli invasion of 1982 to the long civil war of the 1980s and 1990s. The Nahr al Bared crisis is also blamed on the Palestinians and their half a century long presence in the country.

I know it is not easy putting up with the guests who have stayed on for six decades. And the Lebanese people have already paid a huge price by way of their involvement in this conflict. However, the Palestinians are not there in Lebanon by choice. Just as they are not there in Syria, Jordan, Egypt, Iraq and elsewhere in the Arab world of their own accord.

These beaten, bruised and besieged people are wandering all over the Middle East and the world because their own homeland has been occupied and stolen by Israel. And the ever-dignified and proud people that they are, the Palestinians do not enjoy being a burden on any one. Not on Lebanon. Not on any other country, if they can help it.

Six decades on and many generations later, the Palestinians continue to dream of going home one day — back to the country that lives on inside their hearts.

If you have ever seen Palestinian children reverentially holding aloft those ancient keys to the abandoned homes of their parents and grandparents, you would know what I am talking about. It’s a hope and dream that Israeli tanks and its mighty soldiers with their powerful weapons and influential friends can never kill.

The Palestinian refugees do not exactly live in ideal conditions elsewhere in the Middle East. Poverty, unemployment and other problems that go with them are common everywhere, just as they are in the occupied territories. They are seen with suspicion and have little freedom of movement or action, wherever they are.

However, Lebanon is easily the worst of them all for the Palestinians. Living in abject poverty and squalid conditions, they are prisoners in their camps for all intents and purposes. This is not my view but the shared opinion of the UN aid agencies and civil society groups working in the region.

The Palestinian refugees in Lebanon have no rights, freedom or dignity, to speak of. As some conscientious UN officials and independent journalists have tried to report, the Palestinians have been caught yet again in a dangerous game of big powers. And they are being meted out collective punishment for what they are. The western media has already condemned them for “supporting Al Qaeda elements”.

If Fatah Al Islam snipers are shooting at Palestinian women and children fleeing Nahr Al Bared, the Lebanese tanks are firing deep inside the refugee camp — ostensibly at Fatah Al Islam terrorists. However, they always end up targeting Palestinian civilians. Two mosques in the camp have been severely damaged in indiscriminate mortar assault on the camp. One wonders where the Lebanese army’s awesome fire-power was when Israel attacked southern Lebanon last year.

Interestingly, Fatah Al Islam fighters, condemned as Al Qaeda by Beirut and Washington, are said to have been helped out of jail and moved from the Ein Al Helwe refugee camp in Saida, Lebanon by the powers that be — with the acquiescence of the Lebanese army — to the Tripoli area.

Now this group is being attacked, along with Palestinian refugees, by the very entities that created it. And no one has a clue what motivated this political manoeuvring. Whatever it is, it might not have very pleasant implications for an already volatile region.

But that is a side issue and of little significance compared to the bigger issues at stake. And the real issue at the heart of this conflict in Lebanon is not the Palestinian presence or their manipulation by the numerous players and power brokers in the country.

At the core of Lebanon’s instability lies the Israeli occupation of Palestinian lands. If Palestinians are a growing burden on small and politically fragile countries like Lebanon, look no further than next door for causes.

It is the occupation that not only continues to strangulate and radicalise the Palestinians but is also responsible for the continuing instability and chaos across the Arab and Muslim world. If Lebanon is on the brink today, thank Israel. If Iraq is burning and appears all set to disintegrate, the credit should again go to Israel. After all, it was Israel and its powerful friends in the US establishment who played a key role in persuading Bush to invade Iraq by portraying it as a “threat” to God’s own country.

Again, if the US goes after Iran, it will be because of Israel. Islamist Iran has cleverly been built into a “clear and present danger” to the state of Israel. If the Muslim world — from the Mediterranean to the Far East — remains dangerously agitated and unstable, Israel’s never-ending subjugation and persecution of Palestinians is to blame.

If the gulf between the West and Muslim world continues to widen, it is not because of some pathological hatred of all things western and Christian in Muslim hearts. It is Israel’s policies towards the Palestinians and the West’s connivance of this apartheid regime that make our world a dangerous place to live in.

The writer is a Dubai-based journalist.
aijazsyed@khaleejtimes.com

Jaw to jaw

IT was only after a prolonged tussle between pragmatists and hardliners that the regime decided to participate in the talks – and heaven knows what was happening in Iran. But, for once, the US vice-president Dick Cheney's band of neo-conservatives were outgunned by the combined forces of the State Department, the CIA and the Pentagon. Thus Monday saw, for the first time since 1980, direct talks between an American and an Iranian ambassador.

The scope of the talks was strictly limited. Iran's nuclear ambitions and its funding of Hamas and Hezbollah were off the table. US ambassador Ryan Crocker and his Iranian counterpart Hassan Kazemi-Qomi focused exclusively on security in Iraq. But there was more than enough to talk about there. The run-up to the talks saw an orchestrated chorus of claim and counter-claim.

Last week one US official accused Iran of fighting a proxy war in Iraq and forging secret ties with Al Qaeda. Another characterised Iran's role in Iraq as a player who bet on every horse in every race. On Sunday, Iran responded by accusing the Americans of launching espionage networks within its own borders. Other less obvious messages were also delivered.

There was the unexpected appearance of the Iraqi Shia cleric, Moqtada al-Sadr, who before the start of the US-led crackdown in Baghdad had disappeared and taken shelter in Iran. Before his disappearance, Moqtada overplayed his hand by withdrawing his support from the Iraqi government only to find that it continued much as before.

—The Guardian, London