Expectations of the Bush visit

ISLAMABAD: In diplomatic and official circles here the talk now all about the forthcoming visit of George W. Bush, the 43rd President of the United States of America. Mr Bush, who was re- elected in November 2004 and sworn in for a second term on January 20, 2005 will be the fifth serving US president to visit Pakistan.

The word around is that Americans are coming in droves for the visit. An advance White House team has already arrived here to ensure that all goes smoothly. A 150-member American media team, representing key US electronic and print news networks, will be part of the Bush entourage.

Mr Bush’s trip to Pakistan follows a string of back to back high-level visits from the US. Two former American presidents, Bill Clinton and George Bush, were here recently. Earlier, US Vice-President Dick Cheney came as did other key members of the Bush administration.

A look at previous US presidential visits to Pakistan shows that there has been a certain pattern, with alternate visits by Republican and Democrat presidents. Ironically, while successive US administrations have ‘generally’ made noises about lack of democracy in Pakistan, all serving American presidents who visited Pakistan did so during the reign of military leaders.

Here is a recap. The first US president to visit Pakistan was Dwight D. Eisenhower, a Republican. He landed in Karachi, the then capital of Pakistan, in December 1959 during President Gen Ayub Khan’s era. Lyndon Johnson, a Democrat, was the next American president to visit Pakistan in December 1967. Later in 1969 it was Richard Nixon who made a two-day trip to Lahore during Gen. Yahya Khan’s tenure. Then there was a long gap and no US president came this way. Only in the 80s during Gen Ziaul Haq’s regime US Vice President George Bush came to Pakistan. It was almost 31 years later that Bill Clinton made a very short trip to Pakistan in March 2000. His reluctant five-hour trip left much to be desired, and his live televised address to the Pakistani nation, bypassing all diplomatic norms, raised many eyebrows and left a bad taste in the mouth. On Kashmir, he stated borders can’t be redrawn and the LoC must be respected. It is wrong to support attacks against civilians across the LoC” was his loud and clear message to the Pakistani nation after his five-day trip to India.

President Bush will thus be the first Republican president after Nixon to visit Pakistan in over three and a half decades.

While it has been confirmed that Mr Bush will be accompanied by wife Laura Bush, it is not clear if any other family members will join him on his first South Asia trip.

The Bush visit assumes special significance as it will be the first after the September 11, 2001 terror attacks on the US landmarks in New York and Washington. Also, it will be the first after the US air strike in Bajaur Agency on January 13 that killed more than a dozen innocent civilians, including women and children. The incident outraged Pakistanis and anti-US sentiment peaked after having been partially neutralized by the unprecedented US assistance in the aftermath of the devastating earthquake of October 8.

There has been no word of apology or regret over the Bajaur incident from the US president or any top official of his administration. All that we were told by the FO spokesperson was that Pakistan had been given the assurance at a very high level that there would be no repeat of such an incident.

Insiders concede that while Pakistan has been bending over backwards in extending cooperation to the US as its ally in the war on terror, Washington has done little to address Pakistan’s national security needs. Pakistan’s role has been acknowledged and appreciated by President Bush, but there has also been stinging criticism of Pakistan and its army by unnamed members of his administration for not doing enough. In recent days even the mainstream US media has been extremely critical of Pakistan’s role. And the US scepticism over the level of awareness in Pakistan notwithstanding, the general Pakistani perception about the independence of the media in the US or anywhere else in the world appears pretty much spot on.

War on terror and nuclear proliferation remain the two major concerns for the US government in Pakistan and both the countries have close cooperation on both these fronts. Apparently the US has been pushing Pakistan for more effective implementation of nuclear safeguards and export controls. Also, for direct access to Dr A.Q. Khan, a demand that has been repeatedly rejected by the Pakistani military establishment.

While the US State department maintains that President Bush’s visit to Pakistan underscores the America’s desire to broaden its relations with the country, it remains to be seen how far Washington is actually willing to go to accommodate Pakistan’s quest for nuclear civilian technology and advanced military weapons systems.

President Bush while speaking on war on terror at Tampa, Florida, recently said two practical ways of winning over people in the Muslim countries was to work with moderate governments and to help where help is needed. Diplomats here hope that this help is not confined to assistance in times of natural disasters and will extend to appreciation of the country’s national security concerns.

There are also expectations that Mr Bush will be forthcoming on the Kashmir issue unlike his predecessor Bill Clinton who clearly ruled out a US role in this regard and declared during his 2000 visit: “We cannot and will not mediate or resolve the dispute.”