Promising trends in the economy

THE performance of foreign trade in the first quarter of the current financial year points to a highly promising trend. The rate of increase in exports at nearly 15 per cent during the first three months is much higher than the target of nearly 10 per cent fixed for the whole year. Still more encouraging is the fact that the trade deficit has narrowed by nearly 27 per cent as compared to what it was in the same period last year at a time when imports had grown at a much faster rate of 12 per cent in the first three months against the annual target of nearly six per cent. Another positive aspect of the three-month trade performance is that the income from exports during the period covered over 95 per cent of the import bill against 91 per cent recorded for the whole of 2002-03. Clearly, the turnaround witnessed in foreign trade during the last year appears to be not only genuine but also sustainable. What is happening at the moment perhaps is that the capacities which had remained idle over the last several years are being revived in response to the increased market access provided for our textile goods by the rich countries, especially the EU. The downward revision in domestic rates of bank borrowing, a stable exchange rate, a low level of inflation and the record foreign exchange reserves have provided the needed thrust for the economy to build on the advantages accruing to the country since 9/11. If sustained, the trend could attract investment and widen employment opportunities.

In the absence of further details about this encouraging trend, it is not possible to make a more confident assessment of the prospects of the leading export and import items and their geographical directions. Last year the textile sector had fetched nearly eight billion dollars out of total export receipts of $11 billion, indicating two things: We have started taking advantage of the increased access allowed to our textile goods by the EU since the third quarter of 2001-02 and; our economy has not yet come out of its excessive dependence on a single crop (cotton). On the import front, machinery imports increased by 75 per cent last year but edible oil, POL products and crude oil still made up over 25 per cent of the total import bill. We enjoy a comparative advantage in textile goods because we are perhaps the third in ranking among cotton producing countries. We must exploit this advantage more fully and aim for an export target of at least $15-$20 billion in textile goods in the next five to seven years by putting more stress on value addition, keeping in view, at the same time, the kind of competition we will be facing in the world market after quotas are abolished in 2005.

This would need a lot of investment both in terms of finances and technology, which perhaps can be ensured by prospecting for foreign investment. Simultaneously, we must also try to guard against the risks involved in our economy’s heavy dependence on cotton by diversifying our exports. There are many options that must be considered in this respect. Besides, we do enjoy another comparative advantage, and that is our geographical location — situated as we are right in the middle of trade routes going from east to west and north to south. This advantage could be put to work for our economy by offering transshipment facilities to the exporters and importers of Central Asia, the Middle East, South-East Asia and Africa.

Down the Ravi

    A SEMINAR organized the other day by the Punjab Environment Protection Department was told that over 200 industrial units drained untreated effluent waste into the Ravi river. The delegates revealed that of the 6,600 industries operating in the province, only 41 had waste water treatment plants, which was in contravention of the provisions of the Pakistan Environment Protection Act of 1997 (PEPA). Reports gathered by international environmental agencies reveal that the Ravi is the most polluted of the Punjab’s rivers, with several kilometres of its course along Lahore totally incapable of supporting any marine life. This is partly because the river enters Pakistan containing heavy industrial waste drained into it from Indian East Punjab. Add to it the effluents released by industries in Sialkot, Lahore and Faisalabad, as well as Lahore city’s sewerage waste, and one has a disaster-level water pollution count in the Ravi.

    The Punjab environment department officials hosting the seminar suggested that stern action should be taken against polluting industries under PEPA. But this clearly does not seem to be a realistic solution for a number of good reasons. First, the installation of effluent treatment plants is a costly proposition which most small and medium-sized industries cannot afford. Second, the government itself has not done anything to limit the amount of untreated effluents being drained into the Ravi. For instance, installing a treatment plant on the Hudiara drain, which carries the bulk of the industrial effluent for 55 kilometres before it finally discharges into the Ravi, can significantly reduce water pollution levels in the river. Similarly, sewerage generated by Lahore city can be treated before consigning it to the river. The industries using the Hudiara drain can be asked to share the cost of the treatment plant. As for the other polluting industries along the Ravi, these need to be offered individual treatment plants on easy instalments, so as to encourage them to comply with the law instead of risking an outright closure owing to their inability to afford these plants. 

Vegetable prices

PRICES of vegetables have seen an alarming rise in Karachi over the past week or so, making it difficult for the general public to afford even the most ordinary of everyday greens. While there may be legitimate reasons for the hike in the price of certain vegetables like tomatoes and fresh coriander, a majority of vegetables, including potatoes and onions, have not seen any depletion in their stocks and, therefore, an across-the-board price hike cannot be justified. Retail tomato prices have risen from Rs15-20 a kilo a week ago to Rs45-50 these days. According to the retail green grocers, this has happened because the last tomato crop in Sindh was destroyed during the monsoon and supplies from Balochistan now stand exhausted. The Sindh crop was re-sown in August, and until that matures, tomato prices will continue to be on the higher side.

Notwithstanding the devastating effects of the monsoon rains this year, vegetable prices seem to follow a trend over the past few years. It has been noticed that substantial price hikes occur shortly before Ramazan as artificial shortages are created by hoarders, who later reduce the prices under pressure from authorities but do so only nominally. This way the hoarders ensure that they are able to sell vegetables at a higher price during the holy month. The city government’s relevant department would do well to be on the watch-out for such unscrupulous elements, so that they are not allowed to garner undue profits by causing hardship to the people during Ramazan. There is also a need to ensure that prices of other everyday commodities such as ghee, pulses and chickpeas, for instance, are also kept in check as the consumption of these commodities goes up during Ramazan.