Like a born-again Christian who is doubted and suspected, the PML-N has now spent years trying to establish itself as an anti-establishment party but it still faces more than just a little scepticism.
Expected to sweep Punjab province, which is the proverbial key to an electoral victory in Pakistan, the party faces a number of hurdles, of which the PTI is perhaps the only unknown.
The other problems include its right-wing image along with its alliances with militant groups and its unclear stand on the Taliban (something that is said to have cost it the approval of the West); its uncertain relationship with the military; and its inability to mature into a national party which enjoys countrywide support rather than simply in one province.
The seriousness of the first hurdle in the shape of the PTI is the most unquantifiable and unpredictable as no one knows what this new ‘force’ will achieve in May.
But what is clear however is that if the PTI does not, no one else can stop the PML-N juggernaut from sweeping Punjab as the PPP and the PML-Q - by most accounts — are in poor shape in the province.
From Pindi to Okara, there are about a 100 National Assembly seats to win and if the PML-N sweeps here, it will be able to take a shot at forming the next government.
And while this is a big if, this is also where all the other ‘buts’ begin.
That the PML-N still has not lost its authoritarian streak (remember the havoc it wreaked with its two-thirds majority post-1997) is evident from its inability to form a single formal alliance so far which will bring it numbers to help reach the simple majority and of course give it the legitimacy needed by including representation from another province.
The alliance with Sindhi nationalists and the seat adjustment talk, so far, address neither of these issues.
A related issue is the rumours of the party’s unacceptability to both the West (for its ambiguity on the war on militancy) and the army (for its harsh criticism of the military). That the party is aware of this is clear from the recent unofficial reports that a recent ‘foreign’ trip of supremo Nawaz Sharif for spiritual reasons were aimed at convincing its guardians in exile to intercede on its behalf with both these players.
In fact, the party’s inexplicable silence on retired General Pervez Musharraf’s return is being seen as evidence of this.
And then there is the bad press the party has earned recently for its electoral alliance with banned groups such as Ahle Sunnat Wal Jamaat. This stigma will not go away soon — however many Sh Waqas Akrams the party accepts into its fold and however rapidly it rebuilds the houses in Joseph Colony.
Compared to these image problems its internal struggles are irrelevant for the moment. Though there are reports of friction between its old loyalists — Ahsan Iqbal and Zafar Iqbal Jhagra — and the new Q Leaguers it has let in, and there is still turmoil in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa chapter where Sharif’s son-in-law created trouble last year, none of these can lead to anything but murmurings at the moment.
This is why critics allege that if the party makes it to Islamabad, the real challenges will begin as its various shortcomings will be thrown into sharp relief — its inability to deal with a hostile press; its skills in keeping its trader class voters happy as it confronts tough issues such as tax reforms; and battling a possibly stronger Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan as the US withdraws from Afghanistan.