After a month long topsy-turvy campaigning, over 86 million voters will today seal the fate of 15,629 candidates in the field for 272 NA and 577 PA seats. The spending spree may have been a little lopsided in terms of geography, but on the national scale, political parties and candidates left no stone unturned to encourage the diehards and to capture the floaters. From mainstream media to social media, from security services to chartered planes and choppers, from bulletproof four-wheelers to zigzagging two-wheelers and from election staples like billboards and banners to flags and feasts, the spending spree was short in duration but stunning in scale. The 2008 elections had generated an estimated Rs200 billion worth of activity. Official numbers alone indicate a minimum hike of 2.5 times, making the 2013 general election …
In this special report the Dawn Business and Economics team tries to assess not just the cost and the changing pattern of spending, but also the beneficiaries of the opportunity that an election throws up for enterprising Pakistanis.
IF democratic aspirations are measured in monetary terms, Pakistanis will probably beat the most ardent of democrats anywhere in the world. At Rs400 billion — $4 billion, that is — the spending estimates in the current elections are shockingly high for a poor country skirting around the ghost of international default.
In case the turnout hovers around 50 per cent of the around 86 million electorate, the financial worth of a single vote works out to be Rs9,000 which is Rs1,000, or roughly 11 per cent, more than the minimum wage of Rs8,000 per month in the country. Besides, it is up by Rs4000, or 80 per cent, compared to the corresponding cost in the last elections five years ago. Economic indicators over the period have all gone down, but the desperation to sit over empty coffers has gone up. The conundrum in its texture and flavour is so typically Pakistani, isn’t it?
“The financial wrestling to win an election in Pakistan is one of the key factors, if not the most important one, behind corruption. The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) had capped the spending limit. It is for all to see that it has not been honoured. Everyone from the moral brigade in the legal fraternity to the global transparency champions look the other way when it comes to the business of elections,” commented an expert.
“For fairness, therefore, it is important that the economy of elections is made transparent. Payments should be made through banking channels and political parties’ accounts should be audited and made public. It would reveal which business family and lobby backs which party and if the post-election government tilts decisions in their favour, it would expose the nexus,” he suggested.
The very size of the election economy suggests not just an overlapping of formal and informal sectors, but also the growing influence of underworld on the back of the piles of ill-gotten wealth in the bag.
It is not surprising, therefore, that the election economy is cash-based, making it impossible to follow the money trail to identify both the source of spending and the amount spent.
The estimate drawn on the basis of market research and survey by the Dawn team may well be nothing more than an intelligent guess, but it does expose the financial clout and the power of the political elite in Pakistan … at least to some measure. It also hints at the potential of wealth-generation in an otherwise battered economy.
“The majority of contestants treat the election expenditure as an investment that promises rich dividend if they win a seat. There must be a portion — miniscule it may well be — of the total budget of parties that is sponsored by supporters fired by the party programme. The rest is either self-financed or drawn through persuasion from quarters seeking political clout and patronage,” another keen watcher of social trends told Dawn.
Many observers attributed higher spending trend in the current election to greater capacity and clout of political elements today compared to the last elections.
“Not all the politicians in the outgoing assembly may be described as corrupt, but a good 80 per cent did manage to earn more than they would have done out of the assemblies. Their capacity to fund their campaign has enhanced because they have been there and, more importantly, tasted what it is like to be there. They understand the perks of being ‘someone’ and ready to do all in their power to make it happen again,” a professor in Lahore said.
The attitude of political parties towards money matters is also reflected in their choice of candidates. “The financially resourceful people are an asset so they are treated well by society at large, and so do the parties across the political spectrum. I do not see how they are at fault in doing so,” commented a leader from Punjab.
There are indications of resources flowing in from abroad for campaign financing. The gain in value of the rupee by a good Rs1.5 at one point during the campaign period when the national forex reserves are depressed can only be explained by some sudden influx of dollars in quantities large enough to alter the demand-supply position in the local currency market.
The quoted expenditure of Rs400 billion represents collective spending by the government, the political parties and the candidates during the campaign period which was much shorter this time round; just one month compared to about two months in 2008. In a nutshell, it is twice the amount in half the time!
The cost of the last polls was estimated at Rs200 billion based on survey-based indications that on an average a National Assembly candidate had a budget of Rs50 million and those vying for a provincial assembly slot had about Rs20 million. The registered voters in this election have increased marginally by about six million (80 million in 2008; 86 million in 2013) over the past five years; the constituencies have not increased; but the number of contestants at both the tiers, national and provincial, have actually doubled. Currently, 4670 have entered the race for 272 seats against 2239 in 2008. For the four provincial assemblies, there are 10,958 candidates — as against 5,045 previously — for a total of 728 seats.
Some senior bankers and high-ranking officials of Transparency International felt the spending in this election did not double; it rolled “many times” over. Shaukat Tareen, a reputed banker and a former finance minister, found the Rs400 billion estimate a bit on the conservative side.
“The budget of blanket advertising on electronic media by the leading parties itself runs into billions. I feel the spending inthis election is more than double than what it was the last time. I find Rs400 billion projection completely believable,” he said while talking to Dawn.
A closer study of the spending pattern of election budgets of parties and candidates suggest change in composition. The share of voters in cash or kind has apparently shrunk at least on the national scale even if one accounts for the dynamics that govern Rural Pakistan. The change in campaigning tools with growing emphasis on leveraging technological advancement has diverted funds from the traditional gainers to the new entrants such as PR agencies, social media experts, event managers, electronic media, etc.
“The gains of democracy to the people will come later, if at all, but the election campaign has surely benefited media – both the tycoons and pygmies. The gain has been proportional to size and that is how market works,” said an analyst.
“Three political parties and candidates employed pricy modern options in addition to the traditional tools to woo voters. From sound systems to popular stars to jingles and anthems, politics in Pakistan explored new grounds in 2013. The days when politics in the country entailed facing threats of imprisonment and lashes seem to be over. Yes, threats from non-state actors have increased, but the fear of state repression has certainly receded,” commented a political activist.
As it was, the expenditure was not spread evenly along regions, political parties and candidates. The campaign was most lively and expensive in Punjab where stakes were said to be higher – much higher – than the rest of the country. But spending did benefit Corporate Pakistan big time.
In the final analysis, elections seem to have emerged as a highly lucrative, once-in-a-five-year business opportunity for many.