IN Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, today’s elections are likely to throw up surprising results that may baffle the political parties, Dawn’s study reveals.
A host of factors could lead to this. Amongst them are the absence of political alliances and seat adjustments, the Awami National Party’s inability to run its campaign freely because of threats from the militants, and its poor past performance, the emergence of a new and yet untested political force — the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf — and last but not least, the resurgence of the PML-N here.
The PTI is a wild card in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, thanks to the enrolment of 1.6 million new voters and its assertion that this generation of new voters will fuel its anticipated tsunami. The PTI confidence of a landslide victory has left analysts guessing as to the possible outcome of the elections, particularly given that there is no data from past elections to draw conclusions. Could the PTI repeat the Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal phenomenon? It is hard to predict.
Predictions can be dicey but an assessment can be made based on public perception, candidates’ own individual strengths, their parties’ strengths and vote bank, and tribal or family influence in a particular constituency.
The Khyber Pakhtunkhwa assembly has a total of 99 seats. The PML-N, the JUI-F and the ANP can get into the double digits here. The case of the PTI is interesting: there are at least five seats where its candidates are likely to win, but then there are a horde of others, 14 seats, where its candidates are in close contests with rival candidates and a slight push could change the equation.
The ANP appears to be the major loser, followed by the PPP; the main beneficiaries seem to be the PML-N and the PTI. The Jamaat-i-Islami, which boycotted the 2008 elections, is also likely to bounce back with a single-digit win both in the provincial as well as the national assemblies.
Aftab Ahmed Khan Sherpao’s Qaumi Watan Party, which contested as PPP-S in 2008, is either likely to retain its position or may improve from its earlier five seats. As for the PML-Q, the party stands vanquished, with no candidate worth the name likely to land in the assembly. The Awami Jamhoori Ittehad Pakistan (AJIP) — a party local to Swabi — seems to be winning in two constituencies. Independents, which have always played a decisive role in the formation of governments in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, seem to be doing well in 10 to 11 constituencies, thus retaining the crucial balance in the power-making formula.
In some national constituencies the contest is so tough that it is hard to predict the possible outcome; yet any party that can mobilise voters amidst the scare of terrorist attacks is almost certain to turn the tables on rival candidates and thus change the entire equation.
The ANP has the largest number of candidates, followed by the PML-N, the JUI-F and the PTI.